The conversation remains informal and discreet, but the leaders of the 27 countries of the Union are wondering about the reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen for a second term at the head of the European Commission. It must be said that the star of the former German Defense Minister has faded a little in recent months. His Atlanticist or pro-Israeli positions are raising eyebrows on the continent, as is his governance, considered too solitary. Renamed “Piepergate”, the appointment of Markus Pieper, a CDU MEP, to the well-paid post of European Union envoy for SMEs continues to make waves. The “VDL” own camp is struggling to digest its great work, the Green Deal for the environment. The European People’s Party (EPP) also validated its new candidacy without much enthusiasm during its congress in Bucharest at the beginning of March.
Even if his chances remain serious, this bundle of elements fuels speculation. Other names are circulating, particularly on the right, because traditionally, the presidency of the European Commission goes to the party that comes first in the elections. And this time again, the EPP should win. Already interested in the position five years ago, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic remains in the running, but the corruption scandals which mark his exercise of power in his country are worrying. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has openly positioned himself for the general secretariat of NATO, a position for which his chances are slim. Observers therefore saw it as a roundabout way of expressing interest in a European post. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the head of the Greek government, is also among the “papables”. “He is strong, he is the strongest of the trio, politically and intellectually,” whispers a source.
Whatever the case, current leaders remain in the shadows most of the time, so as not to take the risk of public failure. “In reality, Prime Ministers prefer the role of President of the European Council, jokes a fine connoisseur of European politics. Just like Matignon, the Commission is a problem box. In addition, the next European Parliament will be very difficult to maneuver “.
“Maltese Plan B”
Still among the conservatives, the name of the current President of Parliament, the Maltese Roberta Metsola, comes up regularly. “She would make a perfect plan B for von der Leyen,” said an observer from another political family. The leaders of the 27 have learned to respect her during the sessions they hold with her at each summit. “It’s still very political, a real debate, she has acquired more legitimacy than her predecessors,” confirms a diplomat.
Finally, some are playing with the idea of a less politicized Commission boss. “The one who can make a mess is Macron,” worries a source at the EPP. A member of the centrist Renew family, the French president implicitly criticized the campaign led by Ursula von der Leyen under the colors of the EPP. He believes that the position requires rising “above parties and countries”.
A wise man named Draghi
According to the Italian press, the tenant of the Elysée tested the Mario Draghi hypothesis with certain interlocutors. The former head of the ECB remained very popular in Brussels. At 76 years old, the man who saved the euro in 2012 appears to be a great sage and must present in the coming days a highly anticipated report on the competitiveness of the European Union. He is on good terms with his successor as President of the Italian Council. In fact, Giorgia Meloni could see her interest in placing one of her compatriots in such a strategic position. “The leaders will never appoint someone who thinks for himself,” another member of the “PPE family” nevertheless tries to reassure himself.
New profile or renewal of von der Leyen, everything will play out in any case in the days following the election. The leaders will meet for a first dinner to analyze the results on June 17, before meeting formally to make decisions at the end of the month. “Don’t forget that names that have already been released are often the first to be swept aside,” smiles a source at the heart of the discussions.
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