Busy week for public finances in Parliament: the National Assembly votes on Tuesday on the “revenue” section of the State budget for 2025 and could reject it, before a takeover expected on Wednesday by the Senate, ally of Barnier government.
An epilogue to the Assembly?
After long hours of debate at the Palais Bourbon, the finance bill is undoubtedly entering its final chapter. Around 4:30 p.m. Tuesday, deputies are called to a solemn vote on the first part of the state budget, dedicated to revenue.
But the version submitted to the vote no longer has anything to do with the text tabled by Michel Barnier at the beginning of October: over the course of victories gleaned by the oppositions, notably the left, billions in additional revenue have been voted for, and several flagship measures rejected (car penalty, tax on dividends, surcharge on electricity, etc.).
To the point of making this first part “NFP-compatible”, according to the president of the Finance Commission Eric Coquerel (LFI). But if the left is preparing to vote for it, this is not the case for the government camp (LR-macronists), which is indignant at “any fiscal nonsense”.
In theory, the troops of the Barnier coalition are more numerous than those of the New Popular Front, suggesting a rejection in the event of good mobilization in the hemicycle, where each deputy present will be able to vote for an absentee. And this, even if the National Rally decides at the last minute to abstain.
If the revenue is rejected, the text would go directly to the Senate in its initial version. If there is adoption, on the other hand, the lower house would tackle the “expenses” section of the State, with a deadline set at November 21. At this stage in any case, the government does not intend to activate article 49.3, preferring to “give free rein to the debates”, explains a minister.
What will happen in the Senate?
Not far from the Palais Bourbon, the Senate impatiently waits to seize the budget. He will do so on Wednesday, with the examination in the Finance Committee of this same “revenue” section.
Michel Barnier has a very large majority in the upper house with nearly 250 senators out of 348, including around 130 within the Les Républicains group, the Prime Minister’s family… And this one intends to carry weight.
“We feel that the Senate will have a different place in the debate. I believe that we have a role to play, to show that bicameralism is more useful than we think,” notes the general budget rapporteur Jean-François Husson (LR), who intends to “provide a framework” in relation to the multiple measures voted on in the Assembly. While promising to generate “several billions in savings”. “In the Senate, we are in a room where we settle down, with a more consensual and negotiated dialogue,” appreciates a confident minister.
The Chamber of Territories still risks giving the executive a hard time on the budget allocated to local authorities, taken to the tune of at least five billion in the government project, and even much more according to the calculations of local elected officials. …
What about the Social Security budget?
At the heart of this budgetary autumn, the texts are piling up: the Social Security financing bill is still being examined.
The deputies having failed to vote before the end of the deadlines set by the Constitution, it is up to the Senate to take up the text. The Social Affairs Committee is examining it from Wednesday, with many hot points to watch out for, on days of waiting in the public service, the postponement of the indexation of pensions to inflation, or even the very significant increase in contributions. employers.
What timetable for the future?
Parliament is far from finished. The Assembly has until November 21 at most to examine the state budget at first reading, unless rejected on Tuesday. Then, it’s time for the Senate: from November 18 to 23 for the Social Security budget (solemn vote on the 26th), and from November 25 to December 12 on the State budget.
On each of the two texts, a joint committee bringing together deputies and senators will be convened to try to reach a compromise text, which will itself be submitted again to the two chambers for a final vote… And a probable 49.3 at the Assembly.