The countdown is on. The 24-hour news channels are looping on the Kamala Harris-Donald Trump duel. In the editorial offices, journalists from all over the world are busy, while others are preparing to sleep all night so as not to miss anything about this election, announced on all sides as being as “historic” as it is uncertain.
The national and international stakes of the election are immense. At least as much as the gap between the candidates is residual. A contrast which reinforces the suspense surrounding the outcome of this campaign, marked by acrimony and peppered with twists and turns. A few hours before the polls close, L’Express reviews what we will need to watch closely.
The pitfalls behind the first results
Be careful… The first results, which should arrive in France at croissant time on Wednesday, November 6, will not necessarily reveal who, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, will occupy the Oval Office for the next four years. As in 2000 and 2020, the world may well have to wait several days or even weeks to know the name of Joe Biden’s successor. The fault is largely due to the very small gap which separates the two candidates, in the famous swing statesnotably. A proximity in the polls which is added to other factors which could delay obtaining final results.
Across the Atlantic, voters have various ways to vote. Voting by post is one of them. Problem: certain states like California, New York, but also the key state of Nevada count the votes received up to four to seven days after the election. And although most key states require mailed ballots to be received by Election Day, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin traditionally experience numerous delays in counting. However, in an election which could well be decided by a few hundred votes, the candidate a priori in the lead the day after the election could not be the winner a few days later.
The reactions of the two main candidates
In 2020, Donald Trump contested his defeat, under the pretext that he “had the presidential election stolen”. He cites as proof the narrow victory of Joe Biden in certain swing states. In Georgia for example, the MAGA champion (for Make America Great Again, campaign slogan used by Ronald Reagan during the 1980 presidential campaign and adopted by Donald Trump) had lost by some 12,000 votes with his rival from the donkey party. Four years later, history could repeat itself.
Throughout his two years of campaigning, the real estate mogul insisted that he would not allow himself to be “stolen victory a second time.” Enough to fear one or more aftershocks from January 6, 2021. His reactions as the results fall will therefore be closely scrutinized. But not just his. In the columns of L’Express, the columnist at Washington Post Philip Bump assured a few days ago that the two candidates were likely to contest the election in the event of defeat. Less disruptive than her main opponent, Kamala Harris could thus try to cancel one or more elections in key states where Donald Trump would have narrowly won.
The changeover of the chambers of Congress
Whoever the next tenant of the White House is, they will have to deal with the legislative body. Today a minnow – the House of Representatives in the hands of the Republicans, and the Senate in those of the Democrats – the Congress could well change color. Alongside the supreme election, voters are also voting to renew a third of the Senate and the entire lower house this Tuesday, November 5.
With a narrow majority – 51 seats out of 100 – the Democrats could lose their hold on the Senate. And for good reason, Democratic territories like West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan would be in the grip of a red wave, the Grand Old Party “being on the offensive this year thanks to a more favorable”, decipher our colleagues from CNN.
Opposite, the House of Representatives, under Republican control since the mid-term election in 2022, is not impervious to a change in majority either. Of the 435 seats at stake, around ten seats could switch from one party to another.