This is the kind of confrontation that we are now beginning to know well. This Sunday, November 19, Argentines are called to the polls for the second round of the presidential election with, face to face, two candidates who everything seems to oppose. On one side, the center-left economy minister of the outgoing government, Sergio Massa, heir to “Peronism”, the political movement which has largely driven the country’s politics in recent decades. Facing him, the far-right populist Javier Milei, ultraliberal and new to politics, obviously claiming to be “anti-system”, and whose profile and polemical and aggressive outings undoubtedly recall the profiles of Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro .
But more than anything, it is above all the extremely difficult economic context which seems to dictate the tone of this election. Argentina is in fact plunged into a terrible economic crisis: nearly 40% of the population now lives below the poverty line. Inflation, in particular, does not appear to be slowing down any time soon. This reached nearly 143% in one year, and the JP Morgan bank estimated that it could even reach 210% by the end of 2023.
Argentina is also still paying the consequences of the country’s total bankruptcy in 2001, with a $44 billion loan taken out from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2018, whose annual maturities are an almost insoluble headache. And to top off the situation, the great drought that hit Argentina this year caused colossal damage to the country’s agriculture, the country’s main sector of activity, with losses exceeding 10 billion dollars.
Towards a “dollarization” of the economy?
How can Sergio Massa, Minister of the Economy of a government that has failed to find the answers to stem this crisis, convince voters that he is the man for the job? In his campaign, he chose to distance himself as much as he could from his predecessors, and in particular from Cristina Kirchner, president from 2007 to 2015 and hated figure of Peronism. Massa now proposes a “government of national unity”, and advocates maintaining the existing social model, necessary for many Argentines to live. In recent months in power, he has attempted the balancing act of a devaluation (20%) demanded by the IMF, while accumulating numerous largesse in favor of the Argentines: tax exemptions, bonuses and subsidies, to cushion the shock of inflation.
For his part, the ultraliberal Javier Milei proposes much more radical solutions. The flagship proposal of the trained economist, who became known on television sets for his aggressive and often insulting tone, consists simply of abandoning the Argentine peso, whose value is collapsing day by day. He therefore wants the country to adopt the American dollar as its national currency, like what Ecuador and El Salvador have already chosen to do on the South American continent.
Javier Milei, Argentine MP and presidential candidate for the La Libertad Avanza Alliance, holds up a fake $100 bill with his image during the closing of his electoral campaign in Cordoba, Argentina, November 16, 2023.
© / AFP
This project, which would cause Argentina to lose all monetary independence, worries many economists, who believe that the conditions are not met for this drastic change. The one who describes social justice as an “aberration” and defines himself as an “anarcho-capitalist” also wants to leave Mercosur, the economic bloc bringing together certain countries in South America – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela.
A vote still very uncertain
Despite everything, in the first round, while Milei was announced as the big favorite, it was Sergio Massa who came out on top, with 36.7% of the votes, compared to 29.9% of the votes for his extreme rival. RIGHT. But the 23.8% of votes in the first round obtained by the third candidate on the right, Patricia Bullrich, could well determine the outcome of this very uncertain second round. Sergio Milei understood this very well. As soon as the results of the first round were announced, he began his seduction operation towards right-wing voters wishing to put an end to Peronism. With success: Patricia Bullrich herself gave her support to the populist troublemaker, dividing even within her own camp.
But with nearly 10% of Argentinians still announcing themselves as undecided at the dawn of this election which could well mark a drastic change in the future of the country, it is difficult to estimate which way the electoral balance will end up leaning. However, with the promise of a country that will remain deeply fractured.