Almost assured of taking the reins of Germany after the comfortable victory of his conservative party during the legislative elections this Sunday, February 23, Friedrich Merz inherits a country confused by the new economic and geopolitical deal. With a mountain of key challenges.
Immigration
Under the direction of Christians-democrats, Germany, shaken by several deadly attacks committed in recent months by foreigners, is preparing for an immigration turn.
Clearly breaking with the centrist heritage of Angela Merkel, the CDU party of Friedrich Merz provides for the discharge of all undocumented foreigners on the border, including asylum seekers. The conservatives want to restrict family reunification, harden the obtaining of German nationality and lock the 3,900 kilometers of German borders.
What about cooperation between Berlin and its European partners, free movement rules in the Schengen area, of the migration pact adopted last year by the 27 EU member states? The Social Democratic Chancellor (SPD) Olaf Scholz accused his rival of wanting to “bury Europe” by advocating a single rider in the most populous country in the EU.
And Friedrich Merz could come up against the same obstacles as the outgoing leader who, despite a discourse of firmness, could significantly increase the expulsions of foreigners infringement or those dismissed by the right of asylum.
The conservatives have made the fight against illegal immigration a priority by arguing that this will argue the progression of the AFD far -right party.
Economy
After two consecutive years of recession, and a third looming, Germany seeks the remedy for its economic crisis. At the heart of the debates, the national symbol of budgetary orthodoxy: the “brake on debt” which limits in the constitution the new annual loans to 0.35 % of GDP per year.
While any discussion on his relaxation was taboo a few years ago, everyone is now talking about it given the huge investment needs in the country: defense, infrastructure, climate transition, support for industry. Even the most orthodox economists judge this shackles, introduced under the mandates of Angela Merkel, out of step with the needs of the third world economy.
The conservative chief recognizes himself the need to massively increase defense and security spending. At this stage, a reform of “Schuldenbremse” does not, however, appear in the conservative program. The latter want to save on public spending by cutting in particular in the payment of aid to long -term unemployed, deemed too generous. But they also promise massive tax reductions in households and businesses whose funding is far from being insured. According to the German Economy Institute, close to employers, the conservative program would cost the State’s finances around 90 billion euros.
International
After three years of a Scholz government divided on the major European and chilly files in the face of international crises, Friedrich Merz promises to restore a driving role to Germany on the world stage. A return of political stability in Berlin is judged urgent to strengthen the weight of Europe in the face of the ongoing geopolitical upheavals: alignment of the Americans on Russian interests in negotiations on Ukraine, called into question the transatlantic link, Washington trade war.
“I will, as a German Chancellor, actively participating in the definition of European policy and with me, Germany will again have a strong voice within the European Union,” said the conservative chief on Saturday. Faithful supporter of a continuation of support for Ukraine, he wants to relaunch relations with France but also rely on the Poland, convinced that the center of gravity of the continent has moved east.
But just like Olaf Scholz, he judges premature to discuss the sending of German troops to guarantee a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. “We must defend our interests vis-à-vis Russia and China, including if necessary by opposing the United States,” said the conservative chief, however convinced Atlantist. Acting the end of the transatlantic partnership which forged the identity of post-war Germany would be a revolution for the conservative party heir to Konrad Adenauer.