Therefore, Sweden’s emissions are decreasing – but an increase is expected

Emissions of greenhouse gases within Sweden’s borders decreased more than expected last year. The reason was above all that more biofuel was mixed into petrol and diesel.
But a sharp increase in the country’s emissions is expected in the coming years.

In 2022, 45.2 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents were released within the country’s borders, which corresponds to a decrease of 5.3 percent compared to the previous year. This is shown by preliminary figures from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.

– It’s quite a big reduction, which we didn’t really expect, says Anna-Karin Nyström, head of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency’s climate unit.

In the last decade, the so-called territorial emissions have decreased by an average of around two percent per year. The fact that that curve now points steeper downwards is mainly due to the fact that emissions from domestic transport have decreased by as much as ten percent, despite the fact that traffic on the roads has increased.

Rechargeable vehicles make an impression

Above all, this is due to more biofuels being mixed into petrol and diesel, which is regulated via the so-called reduction obligation.

– It is absolutely decisive, says Ann-Karin Nyström.

For the first time, the growing share of electric vehicles is also making a clear impression on the emission figures, according to Nyström.

– There are more and more rechargeable vehicles on the roads and it is starting to show. But electrification alone cannot take us towards the climate goals, because the between 4 and 5 million cars with combustion engines rolling on the roads will remain for a long time to come and many are still being sold, she says.

More thoughts abroad?

Another explanation for the falling transport emissions could be “refueling in neighboring countries” – that more vehicles are refueled in other countries due to the high fuel prices, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency suspects. Above all, it concerns trucks that refuel before crossing the border.

– Then the emissions are not recorded in Sweden. We don’t know how widespread this is, but will take a closer look at it now, says Nyström.

As far as industry is concerned, emissions decreased by three percent compared to the previous year. Something that is primarily due to a production stop within the chemical company Borealis and reduced emissions from the mineral industry.

– Among other things, the cement industry has started to phase out fossil fuels, which we are seeing the effects of, even if you don’t see the big leaps in the industry yet, says Anna-Karin Nyström.

Expect a strong rise

By 2045 at the latest, Sweden’s must have no net emissions of greenhouse gases. Now they have decreased by 37 percent compared to 1990.

Right now the curve is pointing in the right direction, but it is highly uncertain whether the trend will continue, emphasizes Anna-Karin Nyström. This is because the government plans to lower the reduction obligation from 2024, which increases emissions, but has not yet told how it will be compensated.

– We expect a sharp rise in emissions, but how big it will be depends on how fast electrification goes and whether the government introduces other policy measures.

t4-general