When asking the AI service Chat GPT who will win the presidential election in Russia, the algorithm does not want to give an answer regarding a future election. It is perhaps safest that way in times of fake news. But I can tell you who is likely to win the election that takes place between Friday and Sunday: Vladimir Putin.
There are indeed three other candidates to vote for, but with the possibilities available to manipulate election results in Russia, no other outcome is likely than Putin’s victory. All opposition has been crushed. And so Putin’s pro-war “challengers” are not considered to have a chance. They are mostly seen as people who can legitimize the election and give it a chimera of a democratic process.
Forbidden to participate
Anti-war candidates Boris Nadezhdin and Yekaterina Duntsova have been banned from participating. Other oppositionists are dead, in prison or abroad. Most famous is, of course, Alexei Navalny, who before his death called for protests on election Sunday. His wife Yulia has repeated the message that Russians unhappy with Putin should be at the polls at 12 noon on Sunday to queue.
By the fact that many people jointly create queues at the voting, a protest takes place that is legal, Navalny believed. Demonstrations are practically forbidden in Russia today.
Therefore, it will be interesting to see if Sunday will also be a day for expressions of dissatisfaction at the polling stations.
The answer that the election cannot give
Roughly 112 million Russians are eligible to vote, and the turnout last time was 67.5 percent according to official figures. This year they will ensure that the number is above that. It’s all about making Putin’s war against Ukraine appear as something the Russian population wants. How does it actually work? A Russian election cannot answer that.