August is usually a hot month on the housing market, after a couple of quiet summer months.
— You can almost count on it that regardless of how the market is doing, it usually goes up a little in August. It has become a bit of a tradition in Sweden to have some big viewing weekends in August. When we look historically, there is usually a very positive seasonal effect in August.
Overall, house prices in the country rose by 1.9 percent, while condominiums went up by 0.5 percent. Adjusted for seasonality, the price increase was lower, plus 1.0 percent for villas and unchanged for condominiums.
Robert Boije, chief economist at SBAB. Stock image. Will fall
After an active August, however, you can expect a cooler market, says Boije.
— You usually see a decline after late summer. If historical patterns are to be believed, you can expect prices to drop now during the fall.
SBAB’s forecast is that housing prices will fall by a total of 20 percent from last year’s peak. So far, the drop has averaged around 12 percent.
— We believe that interest rates will peak in late autumn, so I would say that after this autumn the price drop should be complete.
Strong labor market
Another explanation for the fact that prices on the housing market are not falling further, despite the current interest rate situation, is that employment remains strong, says Erik Holmberg, market analyst at Hemnet
— It has probably contributed to the fact that the fall in house prices has not been greater.
At the same time, the supply of housing has been record high during the month of August, according to Hemnet’s statistics. The fact that it has not affected the price development negatively can be explained by the fact that many homes have been out for sale for a long time, says Holmberg.
— It is a slower market now. Much of what is for sale is stuff that has lost activity and been for sale for a long time. It may be sellers who are not interested in adjusting to a different price level or who are in no rush to sell at all.
Erik Holmberg, market analyst at Hemnet. Press image. Buyers beware
The fact that buyers are more cautious and want to sell their home before buying a new one also affects the supply, says Erik Holmberg. And if the buyers continue to be characterized by caution, there will likely be a price drop this autumn, he believes.
At the same time, activity on the market generally seems to be on the way back, says Holmberg.
— We see two clear shifts. Partly because more and more homes are published after six months of low volumes. Partly because the intention to buy is starting to come back after being very low in 2022 and the beginning of 2023. If buyers and sellers can meet in terms of price, then activity can also increase here during the autumn.