Soldiers seized power in the giant West African nation of Niger just over two weeks ago.
After the coup, the EU countries were in a hurry. They began to evacuate their citizens from Niger.
In the capital, Niamey, thousands of people have demonstrated in favor of the military junta. Foreign troops are required to leave the country.
The EU should have paid better attention to the signs of the crumbling of Niger’s democracy, says the researcher From Katariina Mustas.
– There were signs of danger, and perhaps they were noticed. But it can be criticized how much attention was paid to them compared to how important a partner Niger has become for the West, says Mustasilta, a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute.
Mustasilta has been studying the EU’s activities in conflicts and crises for years and especially follows sub-Saharan Africa. He led the study published by the Institute of Foreign Affairs last year, which examined Finland’s actions in Afghanistan.
The Western operation in Afghanistan ended in chaos exactly two years ago, when the extremist Islamist Taliban movement took over Kabul in August 2021.
In West Africa, Europe has repeated many of the same mistakes in crisis management in the Sahel region as in Afghanistan, says Katariina Mustasilta.
A military operation does not eliminate problems
The Sahel is a wide belt that runs south of the Sahara across Africa from west to east. This article deals with the Sahel countries Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso.
The situations in Afghanistan and the countries of the Sahel differ in many ways. In the countries of the Sahel, power has been seized by soldiers, not by extremist Islamists as in Afghanistan. Islamist armed groups carry out attacks in the countries of the Sahel, but the goals of their commanders are not necessarily the same as those of the Taliban.
However, the comparison makes sense when talking about the actions of the Europeans in the so-called fight against terrorism, says Mustasilta.
Both in the Sahel and in Afghanistan, the Europeans have tried to solve crises by investing in the military side. In the Sahel, France launched a military operation in Mali in 2013 and has since led European crisis management efforts.
Especially at the beginning, the idea was to first eliminate the terrorist groups and then stabilize the country. According to the researchers, the approach does not work.
– It does not eliminate the problem itself, Mustasilta says.
With military action, momentary pressure can be created so that the armed groups stay in a certain area and move elsewhere. However, the reasons for supporting extremist movements cannot be solved militarily.
Recently, it has been better understood in Europe that jihadist movements cannot be defeated if, for example, the administration is not improved. In Niger, the EU has supported, among other things, the activities of non-governmental organizations.
However, most of the EU’s support to Niger and its neighboring countries has been military.
One of Europe’s mistakes in both Afghanistan and the Sahel has been that the Europeans have initially started supporting countries from their own starting points, says Katariina Mustasilta.
– Europeans should have listened more closely at the local level, what is needed especially in those communities affected by insecurity and violence.
Did the EU rely too much on France’s picture of the situation?
Events in Niger have been closely followed in the news in Finland as well. Part of the reason is that Niger, one of the least developed countries in the world, has been strategically so important to Europe.
The importance is a consequence of the crises in other countries in the Sahel region. The entire focus of European crisis management had to shift to Niger after Mali’s military junta turned its back on the West and became Russia’s partner.
This year, Niger has received more support than before from the so-called European Peace Fund. In June, the EU decided for the first time to provide weapons aid to the armed forces of Niger from the fund. Soon after, soldiers seized power in Niger.
The risks had been visible for a long time.
Niger’s president’s chair was a spinner. A coup had been attempted before.
After the hijacking in July, the French president Emmanuel Macron has, according to media reports, blamed French intelligence for the failure.
– In the United States, it has also been asked whether there was a failure in reacting to the fact that the president is under pressure by Mohamed Bazoum and some of the leaders of the armed forces had become tense, Katariina Mustasilta says.
According to Mustasilla, it may be that the EU partially turned a blind eye to the dissatisfaction of both soldiers and citizens. It is because Niger was such an important partner that it could not be thought of falling.
It is also possible that other European countries relied too much on the situational picture of former colonial power France.
Crisis management operations are often led by one state that has particularly strong interests in the region. For other countries, the main reason for participating in the operation is not necessarily directly related to the region itself.
For example, Finland’s main goal in Afghanistan was to maintain relations with NATO and the United States, according to a report by the Foreign Policy Institute led by Mustasilla. In such cases, the country may be happy to leave the main responsibility for monitoring the situation in the destination country to others.
– In the Sahel, France has undeniably had the most significant position. Even so, on the ground, the EU’s activities are not necessarily clearly separated from France’s activities, Katariina Mustasilta says.
He estimates that the events in Niger will spark a discussion in many countries about what information their own situational picture will be based on in the future.
The EU fears the growth of Russia’s influence
The EU nurtured its relationship with Niger also because President Bazoum was the elected head of state in the Sahel, which is suffering from coups.
Such an alliance suited the EU well, which wants to appear in Africa as a defender of democratic values against authoritarian China and Russia.
Niger’s democracy was European and of US praise despite, however, anything but perfect. The soldiers who seized power are now exploiting the frustration of many Nigerians with the country’s problems in their speeches.
The leader of the military junta Abdourahamane Tchiani listed on TV the sins of the old leadership include corruption, misuse of public funds, impunity and restriction of civil liberties. Many of these are actually inherited from years ago.
After the coup, the EU has frozen its cooperation and support to Niger. The EU as a whole does not want to leave Niger, says Katariina Mustasilta.
– If the relations are cut off completely, the EU’s fear is that other players such as Russia and China will take over the space, says Mustasilta.
Due to the turmoil in Niger, it is difficult to assess the near future. If the power of the military junta is established, the EU can probably keep its operations going at some level, as has been done in Mali.
In Mali, for example, the EU’s crisis management operation still has an office, even though the EU no longer trains soldiers.
In Niger, the EU could continue to cooperate, at least to curb the migration that is important to the Union.
Niger has been a transit country on the route of migrants and asylum seekers to Europe. It has previously agreed to help Europe curb migration.
It could be useful for the junta to act in the way the EU wishes, if in return it receives money from the EU, researcher Mustasilta estimates.