The war in Gaza has started a domino effect in the Middle East, as a result of which a major regional power user has lost its allies and influence.
One of the biggest losers of the Syrian revolution is Iran. In just over a year, it has lost its most important foothold in the Middle East.
Over the decades, Iran, located in the Persian Gulf, has accumulated significant influence in the Middle East through its network of allies, the so-called Axis of Resistance. The network has included a motley group of Iranian-backed actors united by opposition to Israeli and American influence.
The most important members of the Iranian network have been Syria led by Assad, the resistance movement Hezbollah operating in Lebanon, and the resistance movement Hamas in Gaza. In addition, Iran’s allies are Yemen’s Houthi rebels and various armed groups in Iraq.
Iran has supported and armed these groups. Under Assad, Syria was an important route for arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah to Lebanon.
In just over a year, Hamas and Hezbollah have weakened as a result of Israel’s manipulation. Hezbollah, which supported Assad, was forced to withdraw its forces to fight Israel in Lebanon. In November, Hezbollah signed a truce with Israel.
This contributed to the fall of the Assad regime in early December. The Sunni Islamist rebels who came to power in Syria have said that they are separating from Iran.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria also means that Iran’s ally Russia lost its influence in the Middle East overnight.
The crumbling of Iran’s network of allies means a significant change in the balance of power in the Middle East, researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta says.
– Now this power vacuum is being filled by Israel. Turkey is also taking over Iran’s dominating role, says Alaranta.
Iran has been cornered
Iran’s arch-enemies in the Middle East are Israel and its biggest supporter, the United States. For them, the weakening of Iran’s allies is a great victory.
Iran’s threat to Israel has weakened, but not disappeared, Alaranta points out.
Iran put the West on its toes with its nuclear program in the 21st century. Western countries say Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, but Iran denies this and claims its nuclear program is peaceful.
In any case, Iran has almost nuclear-enriched uranium the equivalent of four nuclear bombs.
– Iran’s military deterrence outside its borders was previously formed through alliances. Now Iran is definitely thinking about whether now is the moment when they really need to start acquiring nuclear weapons, Alaranta estimates.
The cards are now in Trump’s hands
The United States is now in a key position in which direction the situation develops, says Alaranta.
In 2015, Iran and the United States signed an agreement in which Iran agreed to limit uranium enrichment as long as the United States lifted economic sanctions against Iran.
Donald Trump pulled the US out of the deal during his first term as president in 2017. Iran has since accelerated its nuclear program.
In July, he became the president of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian. He has promised to return to the negotiating table regarding the nuclear program in order to lift sanctions and improve Iran’s economy.
In the United States, however, Trump is rising to power again. Newspaper The Wall Street Journal said last week, based on his sources, that instead of starting negotiations, Trump’s inner circle is now considering airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
– The crumbling of the axis of Iranian resistance is a bit of a double-edged sword. If Iran feels completely cornered and if it accelerates its nuclear program, then that will be a big problem for Israel.