Director of the Foreign Policy Institute, Mika Aaltola, estimates that the NATO Secretary General’s speeches about the ratification of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO applications as quickly as possible are a good sign.
Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg the statements about Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO ratifications are not a surprise, but there has been a “rhetorical change” in NATO’s attitude towards the countries’ memberships, the director of the Foreign Policy Institute, Upi Mika Aaltola evaluate.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today on Tuesday that the main question is not whether Finland and Sweden will ratify NATO at the same time, but whether both would be ratified as members as quickly as possible.
Upin Aaltola sees that since November, the “baseline scenario” in various foreign policy assessments has been that Finland and Sweden may have to join NATO one after the other, not completely at the same time. This is mainly due to Turkey’s different attitude towards the countries’ applications.
Aaltola estimates that Secretary General Stoltenberg’s recent statements, in which the emphasis was placed on both countries’ ratification as quickly as possible instead of simultaneity, are a good thing for Finland.
– There is a different gesture and movement on the final straight. The votes of Hungary, Turkey and NATO are shifting. So are the voices of Finland. Things are clearly moving and that’s a good sign. When compared to the fact that things were frozen in the fall.
According to Aaltola, Finland and Sweden will be in NATO by July
Aaltola sees that the hand-in-hand-with-Sweden-to-NATO talk has turned into a talk about moving forward together, where it is no longer so important whether the countries join NATO at the same time. Perfect simultaneity is turning into succession.
– In terms of the issues that Finland can influence, this is an easier situation for Finland, because Finland can influence Turkey. Turkey perhaps has a more positive attitude towards Finland than towards Sweden, because we do not need legislative changes for NATO membership, as in Sweden, Aaltola estimates.
Recently, Turkey has demanded a tougher fight against terrorism as a condition for Sweden’s NATO membership. According to Aaltola, Turkey is waiting for the passage of terrorism legislation in Sweden before accepting Sweden’s NATO membership, and this could happen in June.
– Turkey does not seem to have such requirements for Finland. Turkey, which is NATO’s second largest military power, I understand has a very favorable attitude towards Finland’s NATO application. That will be this separation, says Aaltola.
The Swedish government has proposed tightening the terrorism legislation so that it becomes easier to prosecute for supporting a terrorist organization. The Swedish government hopes that the proposal will be submitted to the Diet in March and the law could enter into force as early as June.
Aaltola predicts that by the July summit in Vilnius, Finland and Sweden will have been accepted into NATO. He believes that Finland will be accepted into NATO first and Sweden in June, after the country has first made changes to the terrorism legislation.
– The July summit is an important chalk line. Russia’s pressure on Ukraine may increase, which increases the pressure on NATO to get things to a good end point, Aaltola estimates.