A European Union-Ukraine summit is being held this Friday, February 3 in kyiv. On this occasion, Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute, deciphers the stakes of this meeting and the real possibility of Ukraine’s entry into the EU.
On the eve of this summit, the European Council announced a seventh envelope of military aid to Ukraine of some 500 million euros as well as 45 million euros to finance training missions. ” We will continue to support Ukraine as long as it takes and as long as it is necessary “, declared the head of European diplomacy Josep Borell from kyiv.
RFI : What is the significance of this visit by senior European officials to kyiv?
Sebastien Maillard : Politically, it is a strong gesture, a demonstration of force, in a way. It is the first time in the history of European construction that a whole delegation of European commissioners has traveled to a country at war. She comes to signify to Ukraine that she will have her place in the European family.
We should not underestimate this gesture, which is also intended to boost the morale of Ukrainians and show that there is a serious prospect of joining the European Union. But the discussions held in kyiv also aim to highlight all the efforts that must be made with a view to opening accession negotiations.
There is a form of eagerness expressed strongly by the Ukrainian authorities, who see themselves in the European Union in two years, which is completely unrealistic. You can’t skip all the steps. We will have to bring Ukrainian minds back to more realistic considerations.
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Between the Ukrainians who want the fastest possible accession and some European leaders who talk about decades, what could be the most realistic timetable?
Obviously, it will be neither 2024 nor 2026, even if we can go faster than usual. Ukraine is a country of 44 million inhabitants, whose level of corruption is well known, even if the authorities have taken up the problem. But you have to make sure, when a country joins the EU, that its economy is ready to be part of European free trade. It will be necessary to ensure that European funds are well managed. Entering the EU is a contract of trust that is built over time, with pledges, but also legal proof that you are well equipped to comply with European law.
If we look at the other countries that have joined the European Union, it takes, on average, about ten years to become a full member. There could be a form of gradual membership for Ukraine, by facilitating exchanges with the European market, by concluding telephone roaming agreements. It would be a way of giving Ukraine a foothold in Europe.
This form of gradual membership would make it possible to make concrete progress, without necessarily speeding up the pace in an irresponsible way and without, either, making the country wait too long.
In addition to political support, what help does the EU provide in terms of military support?
First of all, there is new aid amounting to 25 million euros, which should be granted to Ukraine to help it carry out mine clearance. The effort required is enormous for this country in this area. There is also the donor coordination component of various agencies, such as the European Investment Bank or the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. A platform will be set up for this purpose.
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In addition, the European Union training mission will train up to 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Last May, the objective was to train 15,000. It is very important in times of war that the European Union, which does not send any of its soldiers, takes part in the training of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.
Finally, there should be a discussion in kyiv on how to judge war crimes. Should a special court be set up? Ukraine is not a party to the International Criminal Court (ICC), nor is Russia. The European Union is also helping to collect all the evidence that will be used for future trials.