Why did Turkey choose to say yes now?
For a year and a half, Erdogan has used his veto in the NATO issue to push for concessions in various areas. With quite a lot of success. Sweden has tightened its terror laws, started a closer cooperation with the Turkish security service and promised to work to speed up Turkey’s long-paused application to become a member of the EU.
But for some time now, the Swedish government has put its foot down and made it clear that it considers that Sweden has done what it promised and that there will be no more negotiations. The same applies to the United States. Biden agreed to support allowing Turkey to buy F16 planes from the US. But has since not backed down from the fact that an absolute condition for the deal to be able to go through in the American Congress is that Turkey FIRST lets Sweden into NATO.
Perhaps Erdogan realizes that he has played this negotiating card to the bottom, and that he now has to take a chance on the US fulfilling the promise of fighter jets. Turkey has also been subjected to extremely hard pressure from other NATO countries, which see Sweden’s membership as crucial for the defense alliance to be able to strengthen the defense of its northern flank and respond to a possible Russian attack on the Baltics.
What remains before Sweden can become a member of NATO?
The Turkish ratification is not complete until President Erdogan has signed the decision. It is mostly a formality, it would look very bad if Erdogan went against the will of the parliament. Especially since his own party AKP was involved in pushing through the decision. However, nothing compels him to sign immediately as he did with Finland’s application. He could drag out the process for a shorter time. For example, to wait for the Hungarian Parliament’s decision.
Now that Turkey has approved the application, it remains for the Hungarian parliament to do the same before Sweden formally becomes a NATO member. Victor Orbán has previously promised that Hungary will not be the last country to approve Sweden.
But the Hungarian parliament is on winter break until February 26, if they are to be able to process our application before then, the parliament must be called into an extra session. And that hasn’t happened yet.
Are there any concerns left?
Yes, there are still question marks over how Hungary will act. Hungary has never made any demands to approve Sweden, the decision is prepared by the parliamentary committee and the government has said it will work for Swedish membership.
But lately the tone has hardened even from Hungary. Sweden is accused of smearing the Hungarian legal system and of not showing Hungary enough respect. What Hungarian President Victor Orbán really wants when he now invites Ulf Kristersson to visit Budapest to discuss mutual trust between our two countries is a little unclear.
Is the aim to take over Erdogan’s role as brake pad and start a negotiation? Or just a way to save face, and show how important Hungary’s role is in NATO cooperation? The Swedish government has been cautious in its comments and does not want to respond to the invitation before analyzing what it entails.
Because the last thing Sweden wants is a new round of negotiations with another country. And the pressure on Hungary to approve Sweden is now so great from other NATO countries that it may be difficult for Orbán to delay membership for a longer time.