Sergei Lavrov welcomes Turkey, which hopes Russia will support its new invasion of northern Syria. Ukrainian grain will also be negotiated.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Ankara, Turkey on Wednesday.
The main topics of the trip have been the stalled export grain in Ukraine and the situation in Syria.
Representative of the Middle East Institute Foundation Anu Leinonen says that Turkey is genuinely seeking to act as an intermediary between Ukraine and Russia so that Ukrainian grain left in grain silos as a result of the Russian invasion can re-enter the world market. Ukraine has tens of millions of tons of much-needed grain in the world.
– Turkey is now trying to gain a reputation as a peacemaker, after previous peace mediations in Ukraine have failed, Leinonen says.
In this way, Turkey could try to compensate for not taking a tougher stance against Russia in Ukraine and not participating in sanctions against Russia.
Lavrov is welcome in Turkey
Lavrov’s trip to Turkey comes to fruition, as Turkey wants to negotiate with Lavrov, says both Leinonen and a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta.
In Turkey, Lavrov is scheduled to meet at least with the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.
According to Alaranta, the aim is to bring about four-party talks that would allow grain to be moved from the Black Sea coast, the port of Odessa. Representatives from Turkey, Ukraine and Russia, as well as the UN, would take part in the negotiations.
– The arrangement would be something like Turkey clearing mines at sea and thus securing the departure of ships from Odessa. Later, the Russian navy would apparently bring ships through the Bosborne Strait.
Alaranta points out that the plan described above is a plan communicated by Russia, and that Ukraine is likely to demand further negotiations on more detailed terms and guarantees from Turkey.
Turkey also has its own interests in liberalizing grain, as Turkey wants to get to buy grain. The country is partly dependent on imported grain. In the past, Ukraine has accused Russia of stealing Ukrainian grain and exporting it to Turkey, among other places.
– By allowing grain exports, Russia could also have a positive PR, for example in those African countries that have not taken as critical a position on Russia’s attack as the West, Alaranta says.
“Turkey has calculated that there is now a place for the game in Syria”
The second key topic of Lavrov’s visit has been Syria. Turkey has threatened to launch a new offensive in the Kurdish regions of northern Syria, where it has been working for years to establish a so-called security zone.
The Swedish and Finnish NATO projects may also be involved in this operation.
– There has been talk of a new attack in Turkey for days, so to speak, a hand trigger. Turkey calculates that now could be a good time, says Anu Leinonen.
Both the United States and Russia are present in Syria. The United States has supported the Syrian Kurdish Autonomous Region, the YPG, and Russia has Bashar al-Assadin troops.
The YPG has been an ally of the United States in the fight against the terrorist organization Isis. Turkey, on the other hand, sees the YPG as a security threat and urges the United States to stop supporting it.
– It may be that Finland and Sweden can be used as a pawn against the United States so that the United States does not oppose Turkey’s plans so strongly, Leinonen says.
According to Toni Alaranta, Turkey has clearly calculated that “now there is a place for the game in Syria”. Turkey also needs a green light from Russia for its attack.
– Turkey has stated that its attack would target areas in Syria where there are specific Russian troops. Turkey and Russia must, in principle, agree that these forces will not come together armed.
According to Alaranta, it is a matter of seeking a balance between Turkey and Russia in northern Syria.
Is Russia putting pressure on Turkey to oppose Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership?
Many have wondered whether the Turkish president is working Recep Tayyip Erdoğan The Russian president is holding back the NATO and Swedish NATO membership projects Vladimir Putin as a minion.
Scholars do not believe in any agreement between Putin and Erdoğan on the NATO case. According to Leinonen, Russia would have ways to put pressure on Turkey because of the energy trade.
– But one may ask whether Russia wants to use this card in a situation where Russian energy is subject to a lot of sanctions elsewhere. Maybe not, Leinonen estimates.
Turkey is still dependent on Russian energy. According to Leinonen, according to recent figures, Turkey imported 44 percent of its gas and about 25 percent of its oil from Russia. In addition, a Russian-assisted nuclear power plant is currently under construction.
At most, Turkey imported up to 55 percent of its gas from Russia. However, Turkey has made a conscious effort to reduce its dependence on Russia for energy security.
Alaranta also considers it unlikely that Russia would actively put pressure on Turkey to oppose the NATO project in Finland and Sweden.
– I do not think that Putin is whispering in Erdoğan’s ear, yes, Turkey has its own interests above all else.
In its opposition to NATO projects in Finland and Sweden, Turkey is primarily seeking to weaken Western support for the Kurdish army YPG.
According to Alaranta, Turkey’s maximum goal is for the United States to reform its entire Syrian policy and end all political and armed support for YPG forces.
At the same time, Turkey wants to continue balancing between the West and Russia, both researchers said.
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