Then there will be war between NATO and Russia

Then there will be war between NATO and Russia

Updated 00.39 | Published 00.20

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NATO prepares for armed conflict with Russia in 2025, reports Picture.

A secret document reveals the military alliance’s 18-month scenario.

Russia is expected to take advantage of Belarus, a power vacuum in the US and a border conflict with Poland and Latvia before “Day X”.

While the fighting rages in Ukraine, the German armed forces are preparing for a hybrid attack from Russia against NATO’s eastern flank, Bild reports.

The newspaper has obtained an internal document from the Ministry of Defense which shows in detail a hypothetical scenario of how a conflict between Russia and NATO could begin.

The German armed forces believe that in February Russia may mobilize another 200,000 troops for the war in Ukraine and push back the Ukrainian army piece by piece as support from Western countries wanes.

After that, Russia can turn its focus to the West with cyber attacks, hybrid warfare and large-scale military exercises before becoming increasingly open about its intentions.

Massive troop build-up

According to the scenario, the annual Russian military exercise Zapad in September this year will be the start of a massive troop build-up on the border between Poland and Lithuania.

The Russian goal: To capture the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow strip of land in northeastern Poland and southern Lithuania that stretches between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

The German defense then assumes that Russia will move medium-range robots to Kaliningrad in October under the pretext that NATO is planning an attack. In December, when an uncertain outcome in the presidential election in the United States led to a power vacuum, it is estimated that a border conflict on the Suwalki Corridor may have broken out and led to “many deaths”.

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full screen NATO soldiers in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius last November. Photo: Mindaugas Kulbis / AP

Russia: Like a Horoscope

According to the scenario, Russia could station more than 70,000 soldiers at the border. Something that in May 2025 could lead to a decision by NATO’s supreme commander to mobilize 300,000 soldiers at the border to deter Russia from trying to attack the Suwalki corridor.

In the secret documents obtained by Bild, the mobilization is described as “Day X”.

What can happen next, when over half a million Western and Russian soldiers are armed to the teeth, is not mentioned in the scenario, writes Bild.

The newspaper has asked the German defense how likely they consider the outlined scenario to be, something Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’ spokesperson does not want to comment on:

– But basically you can say that considering scenarios, even if they are extremely improbable, is part of the military’s daily tasks.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has shot down the German article, saying it is “something you could read in a horoscope.”

Estonian experts have previously estimated that it will take between two and four years before Russia builds up a sufficient offensive force to pose a real threat.

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