– The losses are incredibly high on the Russian side and of course the Ukrainian defense has suffered great losses as well. But all information indicates that the losses on the Russian side are significantly higher – both in materiel but perhaps above all in human lives, says military expert Joakim Paasikivi.
He further says that there have recently been reports in influential media that the Russian economy is doing worse than the Ukrainian one, as long as the Western countries continue to send aid to Ukraine.
– For Ukraine, it is of course important to ensure continued support from the West, not only military equipment but also humanitarian and financial to make the country work.
Difficult for Russia
“The future is always difficult because it hasn’t happened yet,” says Joakim Paasikivi, who believes that the first half of 2025 could be tough for Putin.
– The serious economists who look a lot at Russia say that Russia will have very big problems economically, industrially in the first and second quarter of next year. How much of an impact waging war this way will have remains to be seen.
Wants to stand up for the borders
Many in Ukraine feel a war fatigue, says Paasikivi, but it is not about giving up land, but rather that there is a fatigue towards the fact that people in the West think that “war in Ukraine is hard” and may not want to continue providing support.
– There could be a possible greater willingness to go to a negotiated solution, but there is still an absolute majority that wants you to get back, that you should continue to defend yourself. Because the alternative is to become an obedient state and very few want that.
Then the war can end
Joakim Paasikivi is optimistic. He believes that the war may end in 2025.
– I think there is a good chance that the war will end at the end of 2025 or at the beginning of 2026 if it is about war. Then there may be possible peace agreements, talks and other things, in between. Unsworn is best, but I think there is a possibility, he says.