The risk of the conflict between Israel and Hamas spreading into a large-scale regional war increases as Israel advances its positions further inside Gaza.
The Iranian-backed Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah has been threatening to attack Israel since the start of the war – and if they take the threats seriously, there could be very serious consequences.
– We see the contours of different blocs in a global conflict, says Anders Persson, political scientist and Middle Eastern expert from Linnaeus University.
Israeli forces have entered Gaza to end terrorist-labeled Hamas. But with every step the Israeli soldiers take there, the risk increases that the Iran-backed Shia militia Hezbollah in Lebanon will take their threats seriously – and step into the war on the side of Hamas.
This, in turn, can set in motion a chain of events that can escalate the conflict considerably.
– After all, Hezbollah is the world’s strongest non-state actor with a rocket arsenal of an estimated 150,000-170,000 rockets. It would directly draw in Iran, which is Hezbollah’s major sponsor. If you draw the circle one step further, you can think about what Russia and the USA are doing then, says Anders Persson.
“Signs that it’s escalating”
Russia is closely allied with Iran and the US is in turn closely allied with Israel. The US already has an aircraft carrier in place in the eastern Mediterranean and another on its way, to deter Hezbollah and Iran.
By extension, China can also be involved – which is also closely allied with Iran and Russia.
– We are not there yet. But we see, for example, yesterday and the day before yesterday that both Hezbollah and Israel are pushing further and further into the respective countries and this is a sign that things are escalating on the northern front.
Nightmare scenario
Already now it is possible to discern the contours of a global conflict “in a nightmare scenario”, says Anders Persson.
– Assessors usually say that if there is a major war between Israel and Hezbollah, it is time for everyone to call their bank advisor and review their situation.
It is a metaphor for the fact that it is a war which in that case could affect the whole world.
– Regarding interest rates, oil prices and the financial market, it will be affected all over the world, including for those of us who live in Sweden, he says.