Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been in full force during 2023 where several major events have taken place. The Wagner group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on Moscow, the 19 kilometer bridge to Crimea was attacked and tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are believed to have been killed at the Battle of Bachmut.
But what will 2024 look like? And what strategies will the countries use?
Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi believes that Ukraine needs more of everything.
– You also need so much that you can build up stocks to go on the offensive. Here it is speculated that 2024 will be a year where you build up capabilities and then attack in 2025. But then we don’t know what the support will look like then with the presidential election in the USA and everything, he says in Nyhetsmorgon.
The EU is becoming important for Ukraine
However, he believes that there is some ambiguity.
– But I still think that the signals that exist indicate that the support from the West will continue during the next year. That is also what they say from Ukraine. So one hopes for solutions in the EU and in the American Congress, says Joakim Paasikivi.
Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius believes that Ukraine will put a lot of effort into diplomacy in 2024.
– The big win that Ukraine made this year is the promise of joining the EU, he says.
He believes that 2024 will be a very difficult year for the EU with EU elections and an uncertainty as to whether the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will be allowed to remain in office.
– She has been the symbolic person. She is the one who has visited Kiev the most times of all European leaders. Hungary will be the chair country for half of 2024, it will be complicated for Ukraine. I think a lot of work will be put into the diplomatic work there and at NATO. The EU and NATO are absolutely the most important, says Dixelius.
The goal: Win the battle for the world
Joakim Paasikivi believes that the narrative will continue to be important for both countries in the next year and that you “must win the battle for the world”.
– Putin needs to tell his own population that they are threatened and constantly justify the war by saying that it is some kind of defensive war. But also presenting himself as the good anti-colonialist who supports the disadvantaged. That narrative is important, he says.
However, he questions whether Vladimir Putin will gain a few more allies through this.
– It is North Korea and it is Iran that are the big ones for Russia, he says.
“Then Putin’s prestige drops”
Malcolm Dixelius believes that a certain strategic move from Ukraine could make Putin tremble.
– I think that Putin will be pressured if this strategy with Crimea succeeds. That is, if Ukraine succeeds in making Crimea uninhabitable or difficult to defend. Then Putin’s prestige drops and we get an unpredictable situation, he says.