Jonas Rosén, CEO of the Mäklarsamfundet:
1. Up, down or quiet, how will house prices move in 2023?
— My guess is that in a year’s time we will have seen an upswing based on the large need to move that exists and is contained today. We get new jobs, get divorced and move. We are now starting to see a tendency of balance where buyers and sellers meet and then things can go quite quickly.
2. What single factor could slow down prices even more?
— If inflation does not subside and we see further interest rate increases, we will see a tough 2023.
3. From a political point of view, people have flagged for a break in amortization. Will it become a reality in the next year?
— As it sounds now, many agree not to give any relief. With that as a background, I think the probability is quite low. From Mäklarsamfundet, we instead want you to look at the credit facilities in a longer perspective, so that you make a long-term decision and not this hating.
4. Is it a housing bubble that is now bursting?
— I think you should look at the numbers and turn back the clock two years. It can be stated that we are beginning to approach those levels. With that as a background, I don’t think it’s a bubble bursting but more back to normal levels.
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Hans Flink, sales and business development manager at Swedish brokerage statistics:
1. – Price increases or decreases usually start with the condominium market in Stockholm. We have now seen that the prices there are starting to level off and I don’t think we will see a price rise in 2023 but will be able to be happy about a price equilibrium.
2. – Unemployment is the worst, if there is severe unemployment where households are allowed to sell their homes at any price. We also do not have a rental market that works and can accommodate these sellers.
3. – It is very possible that there will be a voluntary amortization requirement where consumers are allowed to go to their bank and have that as an opportunity to exempt themselves from the rules.
4. – In Sweden, we are a bit spared from bubbles as we do not have owner-occupied apartments where you buy and own 10-20 apartments that you rent out in good years and then have to sell in worse years. We have high price levels, but if you look at, for example, London, it is still very cheap in Sweden.
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Erik Holmberg, analyst at Hemnet:
1. – When we stand here in a year, it has been relatively stagnant. The market believes in a decline but that it will then turn around and stabilize to some extent. However, there is a range of uncertainty levels.
2. – I would say the interest rate. We can cope with higher unemployment. A higher unemployment rate is also a sign that a higher interest rate has to some extent “succeeded” and we thus get a lower interest rate.
3. – I think that some kind of break will be introduced. Sure, it’s inflationary and that’s the argument against it. On the other hand, there are the electricity subsidies which are also inflationary and this is more fair.
4. – I don’t see it as if we had a housing bubble. What we saw in 2021 was an increased demand for more living space (during the pandemic). It is about changing preferences over a period of time. For it to be a housing bubble, there must be some form of speculation or similar.