“The worst-case scenario is slipping away”

The worst case scenario is slipping away

COVID. Several epidemiologists affirm it this morning: the peak of the number of new contaminations has been exceeded or is about to be. Still to exceed that of hospital admissions. For its part, the executive expects the implementation of the vaccine pass by the end of the week.

  • Public Health France (SPF) published its report on the Covid-19 epidemic in France this Sunday. 278,129 additional cases were recorded there on January 16: this is 46,451 less than the day before and 17,968 less than the previous Sunday. In addition, the average of new daily contaminations over seven days increases to 294,452, against 297,019 the day before. There are also 1,029 new hospital admissions which are counted for the day of January 16: it is 661 less than the day before. Same observation for intensive care admissions: the 119 new admissions for the day on Sunday represent 99 fewer admissions than the day before and 32 less than the previous Sunday. The detailed report can be found on this page, updated daily, devoted to Covid figures in France.
  • guest of France Inter this Monday, January 17, Professor Arnaud Fontanet was optimistic about the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic in France: “The worst-case scenario is moving away, the decline has begun”, he said. he in particular assured, affirming that the peak of contamination, already exceeded in Île-de-France, would soon also be so in the rest of the country.
  • On France info, it was infectious disease specialist Benjamin Davido who estimated that we “may be coming to the beginning of the end of the tunnel” and that we should “soon control this disease as we control the flu every year”. And to add: “After two years of the epidemic, we will have to ask ourselves if we cannot start living with an endemic disease and completely change our way of seeing things”.
  • Despite this potential beginning of a decline in the epidemic, the vaccine pass will most likely come into force “by the end of the week if all goes well”, announced on BFM TV Christophe Castaner, president of the LREM group at the National Assembly.

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10:47 – “This wave will be the last with so many restrictions” assures the CEO of Pfizer

At the microphone of BFTMTV, Albert Bourla, executive chairman of Pfizer, assured that “with the tools created by science, this wave will be the last with so many restrictions” even if, in the years to come, the virus would “continue to circulate”.

10:38 – The vaccination pass in force “by the end of the week”

Adopted on Sunday January 16 at the National Assembly, the vaccine pass should come into force “by the end of the week if all goes well”, indicated Christophe Castaner, president of the LREM group at the Assembly, this Monday on BFM TV.

10:27 – For Benjamin Davido, we must “completely change our way of seeing things”

At the microphone of France info, Benjamin Davido indicated that “the vaccine pass will make it possible to be a stepping stone to the upheaval of the strategy in which we conceive this disease”: “After two years of epidemic, we will have to ask ourselves if we cannot start living with an endemic disease and completely change our way of seeing things”, he added, who also called for “revisiting our testing strategy”.

10:06 – “Surely the beginning of the exit from the tunnel”, according to Benjamin Davido

On France info, the infectiologist at the Raymond-Poincaré hospital in Garches (Hauts-de-Seine) Benjamin Davido estimated this Sunday “that we are perhaps arriving at the beginning of the end of the tunnel”: “We are going, I hope to soon control this disease as we control the flu every year,” he added.

09:53 – The risk of a new wave with a new variant

Although he was generally optimistic on Monday, Prof. Fontanet recalled that “the process of variant emergence will continue to exist. If you have a variant that emerges that is capable of immune escape and extreme contagiousness, you can end up with a new wave.”

09:44 – “We have strengthened our immunity”, assures Arnaud Fontanet

On France Inter, epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet assured that “with each wave of the coronavirus epidemic in France], we have strengthened our immunity. We are protecting ourselves better and better against serious forms”. And to add that if “this virus is going to settle” and that “we will have very regularly, probably, during the winter phases of the epidemics of Covid-19 in the years to come”, “we hope that we do not will see more severe forms in such quantities that require us to take action to protect hospitals.”

09:31 – 90% of the variants tested originate from Omicron

At the microphone of France Inter, Professor Fontanet indicated that “Delta is at a very low level, 90% of the variants tested originate from Omicron” in France. Comparing France with England, which has 94% infections linked to the new variant, he recalled that the country was also “two weeks ahead” of us. And to add: “It is not excluded that Delta will go back in the coming weeks” but “we have reason to think that Delta will not return with the vigor it had during the fall.”

09:21 – “The worst-case scenario is moving away”, according to Arnaud Fontanet

guest of France Inter this Monday morning, the epidemiologist and member of the scientific council Arnaud Fontanet indicated that, according to him, “the worst-case scenario is moving away, the decline has begun, the peak of Covid-19 infections has passed these days at least in Île-de-France”. On the other hand, “hospital admissions could continue to increase. The peak will be reached in the coming week” specified the scientist, specifying that, in the coming weeks, “hospitals will still be very busy”.

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According to the latest data from Public Health France, communicated this Sunday, January 16, the seven-day average continues to increase and now exceeds 294,452 new cases. In the past 24 hours, 98 people have died of Covid-19 in hospital. The incidence rate has started to rise again in the past 24 hours and is now 2,923.21 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants. Here is the detailed report:

  • 14,172,384 cases confirmed by PCR (including nursing homes), i.e. 278,129 more
  • 126,967 deaths in total (Ehpad included), i.e. 98 more
  • 99,755 deaths in hospital, 98 more
  • 27,212 deaths in nursing homes (not updated)
  • 24,887 people currently hospitalized, i.e. 343 more
  • 3852 people currently in intensive care, stable
  • 1029 new admitted to hospital (-661) and 119 in intensive care (-99)
  • 484,007 people discharged from hospital, i.e. 569 more
  • Test positivity rate: 21.31%, or 1.23 points more
  • Incidence rate: 2923.21 cases/100,000, i.e. 39.18 points more

According to last epidemiological point of Public Health France (SPF), published Thursday January 13, France is facing a “sharp increase in the circulation of SARS-CoV-2” and an “increase in new admissions to hospital and critical care which significantly accentuates tension on hospital care”. The incidence rate was over 2,000 positive cases per 100,000 population in all regions.

  • In mainland France, the incidence rate corrected increases in week 01 (03-09 January 2022) and goes to 2,811 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (vs 1,917 in W52, i.e. +47%). The incidence rate exceeded 2,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants among those under 60 and remained highest among 20-29 year olds (5,208, +44%). It has increased the most among 0-9 year olds (2,524, +132%) and among 10-19 year olds (4,520, +104%).
  • The number of new cases diagnosed per day also increases sharply. On average, in S01, more than 269,500 positive cases were detected every day. The effective reproduction rate of the virus stood at 1.44. The test positivity rate was also up (19.8%, vs 17.1% in W52, i.e. +2.7 points).
  • The number of new hospitalizations of Covid-19 patients is also increasing sharply. Indicators by date of admission reported 12,815 new hospitalizations in S01 (compared to 10,939 in S52, i.e. +17%) and 2,126 new admissions to critical care units (compared to 1,981 in S52, i.e. +7%) .
  • The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is the majority in France, identified in 89% of tests by sequencing.
  • Vaccination against Covid-19 is still progressing: as of January 11, 2022, 77.6% of the total population had received a complete primary vaccination. 55.7% of those aged 18 and over had received a booster dose (66.8% among those eligible) and 76.4% among those aged 65 and over (85.5% among those eligible).

Follow the evolution of the coronavirus in your municipality thanks to the map below. Click on a department to display the list of municipalities. Also find all the details on this mapping and the complete point by city and by department in our article on the Covid map in France.

Click on a department to consult the list of its cities.

Since mid-October 2020, Public Health France has been communicating incidence data (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) at municipal level. The figures are at this stage communicated according to a scale (10, 20, 50, 150, 250, 500, 1000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The data is expressed over a rolling week, which means that it is calculated on a D-day from tests carried out between 3 and 9 days previously. To access information relating to the coronavirus in your municipality, enter its name in the search engine or click on its department in the map below.

As a reminder, the incidence rate corresponds to the number of new cases of Covid-19 over a period of one week, compared to the total population of a territory (country, region, department or municipality). This indicator is generally expressed as the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The screening rate gives the number of people having carried out a screening test for the coronavirus out of the total number of inhabitants, during the period. It is also most often expressed per 100,000 inhabitants. Finally, the test positivity rate gives the percentage of positive tests for the coronavirus, compared to the total number of tests carried out over the period.

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