As the countdown continues for the 60th presidential elections to be held in the USA on November 5, the close competition between Harris and Trump is getting increasingly heated.
HARRIS 49.2 PERCENT
According to the average of nationwide surveys on the “Real Clear Politics (RCP)” news platform, which publishes surveys conducted during the US presidential election process, Harris reaches 49.2 percent support.
Accordingly, Harris appears to be ahead of Trump, who garnered 47.5 percent support in the same polls.
TROUP IS AHEAD IN CRITICAL STATES
Although Harris seems to be ahead by a small margin in the nationwide polls, the results in the “swing states” are more important due to the American presidential election system, where the candidate with the most delegates is the president, not the candidate with the most votes.
According to the average of the polls in the 7 swing states, which are of critical importance due to the system called the “Electoral College”, Trump is ahead of Harris with a difference of 0.7 points.
Accordingly, according to the latest polls in October, Trump received 0.3 points in Pennsylvania, 0.7 points in Georgia, 1.1 points in Arizona, 0.5 points in Nevada, 1 point in Michigan and 1.3 points in North Carolina. He continues the race ahead of Harris by a wide margin.
In the same polls, Harris is 0.3 points ahead in Wisconsin, while it appears that Harris has fallen behind Trump in the last week in Michigan, where she has always been ahead.
HARRIS LEADS IN NATIONWIDE POLLS
On the other hand, according to the average of 11 current polls reflecting the situation across the country, including prominent polls such as Reuters, CBS News, Pew, Harvard and NBC News, Harris seems to have 49.2 percent of the votes, while Trump has 47.5 percent.
Among these surveys, in Reuters’ study, support for Harris was 47 percent and support for Trump was 44 percent, while in Harvard’s survey, Harris seems to have reached 51 percent and Trump 49 percent.
It is stated that Harris, who had almost the same vote rate as Trump in the surveys conducted in July, partially increased her support especially among women and Latin American voters during this period.
ALL EYES WILL BE ON CRITICAL STATES
Due to the election system in which a total of 535 delegates will be distributed and the candidate who reaches 270 delegates will become president, all eyes will be on the critical states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
If the picture revealed in the current polls in these states is reflected in the delegate numbers, Trump will win in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina; Harris appears to have a narrow advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin.
It is predicted that if Trump wins in 5 of the 7 swing states, he can reach 302 delegates, while Harris can remain at 236 delegates.
“TRUMP IS CLOSER TO WINNING”
According to the RCP platform, which also includes betting companies’ predictions about the probability of candidates winning, the average of these predictions shows Trump is closer to winning the presidential race.
Sharing the data of 7 different companies named Polymarket, Smarket, Points Bet, Bwin, Bovada, Betsson and Betfair, RCP estimates the probability of Trump winning as 56.3 percent and Harris as 42.6 percent.
All of these betting companies see Trump’s chance of winning at 55 percent or higher.
- Muslim voters react to the US government’s Gaza policy
All nationwide polls show that inflation and economic problems, abortion debates and border security issues are the main topics on voters’ minds. However, especially the US’s Gaza policy is seen as a noteworthy topic for Americans.
While Michigan, where the majority of US Muslims and Arabs are located, stands out as an important state where this foreign policy topic will be effective with its 15 delegates, due to harsh criticism of Biden’s Gaza policy, 13 percent “independent” (uncommitted) votes were voted in the state in the primaries held in February. ) had been voted.
These voters, who stand out as opposition democrats, stated that they may not vote for the Democratic government, which they criticize for their unconditional support for Israel, but also stated that they do not see Trump as an alternative.
Source: AA