The record-warm October gave a respite to the energy crisis and helped Europe replenish its gas reserves. However, with these prospects, a warm autumn does not lead to an easy winter.
Weather forecasts for the upcoming winter are being monitored more closely this year than ever. The colder it is, the more energy is consumed.
– People will not turn off the heating if they are cold, says an economist at the British economic research center Capital Economics Caroline Bain Bloomberg (you will switch to another service)in the interview.
The exceptional heat of the last few weeks in Europe even brought surprising help to the energy shortage. Gas consumption decreased rapidly and at the same time its price decreased. There is even a temporary oversupply of gas now. European gas storages are full for the time being, and LNG tankers are driving in circles with a full load in the lee of European ports.
The weather gave a respite
With the heat, temperatures in France and Spain rose more than 10 degrees higher than normal for this time of year. In southern Spain, the temperature reached over 35 degrees last week.
Switzerland also announced that October was the warmest in 158 years. In Zurich, the temperature was over 25 degrees on Sunday. In Britain, the temperature rose to over 20 degrees in many cities over the weekend.
During the heat wave, European gas reserves rose to approximately 94 percent of total capacity. In Germany, for example, the use of gas by households decreased by 40 percent during the last few weeks.
November is also expected to be mild. It’s a relief for households and governments, who don’t have to worry about dwindling gas reserves even before winter.
– November is even predicted to be clearly warmer than average for the whole of Europe, says ‘s meteorologist Elias Paakkanen.
Winter is getting colder than normal
However, autumn’s warm weather does not mean an easy winter, at least in Britain and Northern Europe.
On Monday, the British Meteorological Institute MET published a long time forecast (you switch to another service), according to which the winter would be colder than normal. The MET is predicting colder and drier weather than usual for January in both Great Britain and Northern Europe.
The forecasts published by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in mid-October also indicate that Europe may get cold as early as December.
– There is a significant risk that December will be cold. This risk is slightly higher than usual, says the director of ECMWF Carlo Buontempo news agency For Reuters (you will switch to another service).
Britain’s Met Office said on Monday that there is a high probability that the winter months will be colder than normal in Britain. The winter is also likely to be drier than normal.
‘s meteorologist Elias Paakkanen reminds us that even the latest seasonal forecasts are only indicative.
– In this situation, it is important to follow long-term forecasts and prepare for the worst, but of course you can’t consider a forecast set in stone, says Paakkanen.
One variable is also brought by the worldwide La Niña weather phenomenon, which means a colder surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean. It may bring warmer winds for the rest of the winter. But it’s not a panacea either.
– The effects of La Niña on the weather in Finland and Europe are ultimately very minor. Both cold and warm winters have been seen during the La Niña phenomenon. Globally, La Niña, on the contrary, lowers the earth’s average temperature, says Paakkanen.
The weather in the coming months will therefore determine to a large extent how bad the energy crisis will become. It remains to be seen whether regulation is needed and whether Europe’s gas reserves are sufficient for spring.
Europe’s wish would be for a mild, wet and windy winter, so that wind power production would increase and fill the energy deficit.
A cold and dry winter is a big threat to Ukraine
The weather of the coming winter is of great importance in the war in Ukraine. Cold winter makes life difficult for people and increases suffering, but it also has other unpleasant consequences.
A US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (you move to another service) according to the dry or frozen soil supports armored vehicles well and is an advantage for the Russian troops. The freezing of many rivers that cross Ukraine would also make it easier for the attackers to advance.
The mild and muddy terrain, on the other hand, would make the use of motor vehicles considerably more difficult.
ISW estimates that Russia’s next major attack in Ukraine will take place in late spring, when new soldiers have arrived at the front and the terrain has dried out.
ISW believes that Vladimir Putin aims to limit its energy exports to EU countries during the winter, so that the winter would be as difficult as possible for EU citizens.
What do you think about the impact of the coming winter on the European energy crisis and the course of the war in Ukraine? You can discuss the topic until Thursday 4 November. until 11 p.m.
More about:
Think tank: There is a clear timetable for the war in Ukraine – the determining factors are the weather and the recruitment of new soldiers
The price of gas is now falling sharply – it also makes electricity cheaper in Finland and Europe