the winners and losers of clarification

the winners and losers of clarification

The official campaign for the legislative elections is launched. After a crazy week where in each camp, the objective was to do well in the wake of a completely unforeseen dissolution. The clarification expected at the polls on July 7 by the President of the Republic has begun in the general staffs.

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The first loser is undoubtedly Emmanuel Macron. The President of the Republic dropped a cluster bomb by announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly. A “unpinned grenade”, the head of state would have said privately, according to The world. Comments denied by the Élysée, but an expression which shows the intention to embarrass his adversaries. First by deciding to convene the elections as quickly as possible from June 30then hoping to form a coalition around him against the National Rally (RN) thanks in particular to the divisions on the left and the weakness of the Republicans (LR).

But nothing went as planned. The left-wing parties have, willy-nilly, found a way to unite and Éric Ciotti blew up the LRs, making alliances even more difficult. Worse, the head of state destabilized his camp and provoked numerous criticisms among deputies but also ministers. Even Gabriel Attal disapproved of the president’s decision and only took on the role of campaign leader when he was forced to do so. Emmanuel Macron has become a foil in the campaign. The proof is that most majority candidates do not want his photo on their leaflets and hope that the president will stay away.

Who else is in the loser category?

The Republicans were led on the voice of dislocation by their president Éric Ciotti who announced his rallying to the National Rally. A shock for the right-wing party already plagued by divisions since the catastrophic presidential election of Valérie Pécresse and which addresses the legislative in an ubiquitous configuration. Éric Ciotti is still president of the party but all LR executives have dissociated themselves from him. They have invested nearly 400 candidates who will find themselves in competition with around sixty Ciottist candidates. A headache for right-wing voters.

Legislative elections in France: who will follow Éric Ciotti?

Who will follow Éric Ciotti, the “still” president of the Republicans in his alliance with the National Rally? If his shock decision were to lead to a great union of the rights, the objective is not quite achieved on paper.

In total, 62 Ciottist candidates will compete under the Les Républicains/National Rally banner. This is a far cry from the 100 candidates mentioned at the start of the negotiations, indicates Raphaël Delvolve of the political service. Only half of the contenders were already members of the Republicans before the alliance. The rest of the list is made up of personalities from various extreme right backgrounds, notably from Éric Zemmour’s party, Reconquête. And something original: the recruitment of a former Macronist MP.


We don’t find any known names, apart from a few media personalities like the former television host and cook Babette de Rozières, or Guillaume Bigot, columnist on the Cnews television channel, owned by Vincent Bolloré. Eric Ciotti’s brutal and solitary initiative especially earned him enemies in his own family. The Republicans, opposed to rapprochement with the National Rally, nominated a candidate facing him in his constituency.

The still influential Nicolas Sarkozy considers the alliance with Marine Le Pen inappropriate. The former president announces that he will vote for a Les Républicains candidate who will agree to work with Emmanuel Macron. In total, the “anti-Ciotti” Republicans have nominated nearly 400 candidates in the 577 constituencies.

Read alsoLegislative elections in France: the submission of candidates for the first round is completed

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also rather a loser, after having been for a moment on the winning side when the left-wing parties launched the new Popular Front with La France insoumise (LFI) reintegrated into the union, which no one could have hoped for after the explosion of Nupes and the Europeans where everyone had campaigned on their own.

But very quickly, the ambitions of the leader of the Insoumis who would have seen himself as Prime Minister rekindled the wounds and Jean-Luc Mélenchon regained unanimous support against him. Especially after the decision not to reinvest for the legislative elections the outgoing protesting deputies internal to LFI – Alexis Corbière in particular – with accusations of purging.

Is there a real winner?

There is a winner: Marine Le Pen, whose entire strategy is validated. Certainly, it is Jordan Bardella the winner of the European elections, the head of the legislative campaign, who will go to Matignon if the RN wins the elections. But behind Bardella, the RN’s flagship product, it is Marine Le Pen who directs operations, refines her presidential image and organizes the winning machine. It was she who announced that the RN would form a government of national unity.

She also declared that she would not ask for the resignation of Emmanuel Macron after July 7, placing herself above the fray but in the maneuver. The dissolution accelerates a mechanism that it has been organizing for a long time and whose objective is the 2027 presidential election.