The biggest shock so far is Swedbank, which beat expectations by a large margin. But SEB also looked strong and ended 2022 better than most expected on most lines in the bank’s financial statements.
Handelsbanken’s report is delayed until next week, but Finland’s Nordea – the fourth major bank on the Swedish market – came out on Thursday with a smoker report that gave the share a price boost.
– The banks have good income, control over costs and very, very good credit quality. That is exactly what you want to see from a banking system, says Håkansson.
Continued profitability
He believes that profitability will continue to be good in the next few years, while highly leveraged households may have a tough time in the higher interest rate situation. But he doesn’t think it ends with any wave of credit losses.
Households will tighten their belts by consuming less – but continue to pay interest on their mortgages.
– Debts in Sweden are not written off in the same way as in other countries. And it is difficult to find alternative accommodation, as we do not have a functioning rental market in Sweden.
Will cool off
Håkansson sees the banks doing well at the same time as real wages fall and interest rates rise for Swedish households as a natural consequence of the Riksbank’s monetary policy.
– The banks cannot refrain from raising the interest rate on their customers, because then the Riksbank’s interest weapon does not work. After all, they want to raise mortgage rates to cool the market, so that consumption decreases. That’s the goal of everything, he says.
And should there be reasons to support households, Håkansson thinks that a scrapped amortization requirement – an election promise that has been put aside since it was rejected by both the Financial Supervisory Authority and the Riksbank – looks like a good tool to provide targeted support to the weakest households.
– I absolutely do not understand the discussions around this. It is more inflationary to pay out electricity subsidies in the way it is now.
Twelve viewing questions about personal finance