Germany has not changed its view on sending Leopard 2 main battle tanks.
It can affect the course of the war in Ukraine and possibly prolong the war.
That’s how the assistant military professor of the National Defense University, major Antti Paronen.
– If Germany does not change its decision, then Ukraine will not be able to form such a modern counterattack capability as it has envisioned with German power, says Paronen.
Ukraine wants heavier weaponry and Leopard main battle tanks, but Germany has not allowed its Leopard 2 tanks to be delivered to Ukraine.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius discussed the Secretary General of the military alliance NATO Jens Stoltenberg with about arming Ukraine on Tuesday.
Pistorius told a press conference that Germany has not changed its position regarding the Leopard battle tanks.
Germany has Leopards
If Ukraine does not get Leopards, it will affect the prospects of the war even six months from now, when the use of wagons in battle would have been expected, Paronen estimates.
Ukraine has requested at least 300 Leopards from the West. Paronen does not believe that Europe would send so many tanks to Ukraine.
However, a few dozen Leopards could strengthen the existing Ukrainian armored forces and thereby affect Ukraine’s chances of gaining superiority over Russia.
– The momentary effect that the whole of the wagons would try to achieve is a kind of decision-making power.
German Der Spiegel (switch to another service) said on Sunday that Germany has made an inquiry in case its view on the Leopard tanks changes.
The paper obtained a secret document that says Germany has 19 Leopard tanks it could send to Ukraine.
The German armed forces have a total of 312 Leopard 2 tanks. According to Der Spiegel, Germany could hand over older 2A5 model Leopards to Ukraine.
Ukraine demands Leopards
At the meeting of the leaders of Germany and France on Sunday, the French president Emmanuel Macron emphasized that France is ready to send Leclerc tanks to Ukraine.
Britain and the United States have also announced their readiness to send tanks to Ukraine.
However, Ukraine demands Leopards from Europe.
Paronen estimates that it is about Ukraine’s longer-term goals and security of supply.
– If Ukraine gets Leopards, it would mean that the Ukrainians would not have to prepare spare parts for the Soviet-era equipment, which is scarcely available.
According to Paronen, in contrast to British and French battle tanks, Leopards are available in several European countries. With their help, Ukraine would be able to have an extensive maintenance chain based on several countries, especially from the point of view of spare parts maintenance.
– There would most likely be wagon losses in settlement battles, and there might even be quite a lot of them. If it is not possible to replace the wagon losses with new wagons, it would become difficult to consolidate the gains achieved, says Paronen.
Many countries put pressure on Germany
Germany has also not given permission to other countries to send their own Leopard wagons, even though many Western countries are ready for it.
Over the weekend, many countries pressured Germany to change its view.
Among others, Poland, the Baltic countries and Finland have announced that they could send their Leopards to Ukraine.
Read more: Finland could send a few Leopard tanks to Ukraine, says Antti Häkkänen
Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki also commented harshly on Germany’s reluctance to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
– We are not going to remain inactive and watch from the sidelines as blood is shed in Ukraine, the Prime Minister wrote On Twitter (you will switch to another service).
He proposed the formation of a smaller coalition. The alliance could donate tanks without German participation.
Paronen estimates that Poland might become an example in the Leopard issue if it were to send tanks to Ukraine on its own.
In terms of wagons, it means that Ukraine would get Leopards, but not German Leopards.
Without Germany’s participation, Ukraine would also probably get fewer wagons.
On Monday, Morawiecki said that Poland plans to ask Germany for permission to send wagons.
Leopard wagons on display at the Ramstein meeting
On Friday, Western leaders met in Ramstein, Germany.
German Defense Minister Pistorius and many other Western leaders announced at the time that there was talk of exporting Leopards, but no decisions were made. However, plenty of other arms aid was promised to Ukraine.
A representative of the Ukrainian intelligence service claimed at the weekend (you switch to another service)that the Western countries’ decision to supply Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine had already been made.
A representative of the Ukrainian intelligence service Andriy Yusov according to the West hesitates how the decision to supply tanks to Ukraine is presented in public.