According to researchers, Russia should be clearly told how it could get out of the pit it dug, writes ‘s St. Petersburg journalist Simo Ortamo.
The West has not sent troops to help Ukraine, but in the economy it is still distributing new attacks on Russia.
On Tuesday, the United States decided to stop importing oil from Russia. On Wednesday, EU leaders decided to add more oligarchs to their sanctions lists and also blockade Belarusian banks.
Exceptionally harsh sanctions have rightly been called economic warfare.
They are already having a bad effect on the Russian economy. In the future, they may complicate Russia’s wars in Ukraine. There is likely to be a banking crisis and a bad recession ahead.
Still, it is not worth relying on the President for sanctions Vladimir Putin withdraw their troops from Ukraine or that they would undermine his position, at least in the near future.
Right now, Putin has not shown no signs that he would hesitate to go to war because of sanctions.
On the contrary, Putin was just referring to sanctions and “aggressive” statements by NATO countries when he ordered Russia’s nuclear forces to a higher readiness last week.
Decisions on counter-sanctions are expected from Russia in the coming days. The Duma has already proposed the nationalization of companies withdrawing from Russia, such as Fazer, Valio and Paulig.
Sanctions may even increase the risk-taking of their targets, the researchers write Erik Sand and Suzanne Freeman War on the Rocks, which focuses on war research.
If sanctions undermine Russia’s ability to wage, Putin may be in a hurry to try to win the war quickly and without resorting to means. A desperate situation tempts you to do desperate deeds.
Sanctions are widespread the life of ordinary Russians. Savings are dwindling, mass unemployment is threatening and foreign products are running out or becoming unattainably expensive.
Still, that doesn’t mean the Russians will necessarily rise up against their leader.
Studies show that the effect may even be the opposite, writes the political scientist Brian Grodsky At The Conversation.
Authoritarian states often react to sanctions by further tightening their grip.
Since the start of the war, Russia has shut down major independent media, blocked access to Facebook and Twitter, and banned the dissemination of non-state propaganda information about the war.
Anti-war protests have been crushed and opponents of the regime have been arrested.
At the same time, state propaganda seeks to unite the people against sanctions. It presents sanctions as an unfair attack by the West against all Russians.
According to Western leaders the purpose of the sanctions is to punish Russia and weaken its conditions in the war. These goals may well be achieved.
Many scholars, such as a Visiting Scholar at the Foreign Policy Institute who writes for Riddle Maria Shaginathink that Russia should also be clearly told about the conditions for lifting sanctions.
This has been done in the past. For example, sanctions imposed because of the conquest of Crimea have been promised to be lifted if Russia ever withdraws from the peninsula.
In this way, Russia’s current or future leader would have another way in addition to the constant escalation of war and intimidation.
You can discuss the topic until Friday at 11 p.m.
This is ‘s daily analysis of the current theme of the Russian invasion.