The actions of the Russian forces in Ukraine will become even more brutal and uglier in the future, estimates the docent of military history Lasse Laaksonen.
– Yes, it is very likely. The predicament is usually solved by something, and from Russia’s point of view, it is easiest to solve the crisis with strikes on civilian targets, Laaksonen tells .
He considers it likely that Russia will avenge Ukraine’s successful counterattack in the Kharkiv region last week by increasing attacks not only on civilian targets, but also on infrastructure. This may happen especially if Russia does not manage to take back the territories.
– Destroying civilian targets is the easiest way for Russia to take revenge. It has already been seen that Russia is waging a very brutal war and does not care about international law. In the light of history, there is a very long tradition for this.
For example, a think tank operating in the United States International Study of War (you move to another service) (ISW) has estimated that the Ukrainian counterattack has caused considerable losses to the Russian forces.
Working as a docent at the University of Helsinki, the National Defense University and the University of Eastern Finland, Laaksonen finds a reflective surface for new attacks on civilian targets in history. Russia has adopted increasingly harsh measures when traditional warfare has not produced results.
– There was also terrorist bombing during the Second World War. The Germans waged a racial war and treated the Russian population with extreme brutality. When the Red Army began to roll towards Germany, warfare was total even then in its brutality.
“The turning point is not yet in sight”
Laaksonen does not believe that the war of aggression started by Russia would be at any kind of turning point after Ukraine’s counterattack. Only time will tell if Ukraine will be able to keep under control the territories it has recaptured.
– Even though Russia has lost the most area from the wars it fought in Ukraine since the Second World War, it is still only an area roughly the size of Uusimaa County. In this regard, I would like to have patience with the talks about the turning point.
Ukraine managed to fool Russia when it launched a counterattack in the Kharkiv region. The poor fighting morale of the Russian troops contributed to the final result. The Russian soldiers fled in a hurry.
– However, I wouldn’t talk about panic, but about weak fighting morale. The troops took the hats, left the equipment behind and, on the other hand, took all the property they could get away from the Ukrainians.
“The scorched earth tactic has worked before”
Russia has practiced scorched earth tactics in previous wars as well, reminds military history docent Lasse Laaksonen.
– It has historically worked quite well. If you look at the history of Russian tsarism, scorched earth tactics have stopped that Charles XIIfrom than Napoleon too. The Soviet Union used the same Hitler against. The attacker’s progress is always more difficult if there is a destroyed area in front of him.
After the Ukrainian counterattack, Russia conceded losses for the first time during the war of aggression it started in February. However, the escape was presented in Russia as a reorganization of the forces.
– It’s easy to explain negative development and failure that way. Russia’s problem is how it can quickly move stronger forces to the region. That’s why I believe that the revenge is aimed specifically at civilians, infrastructure and the rear areas of Ukraine.
Read here the latest news about the war started by Russia
“Putin can also start acting over the generals”
Laaksonen states that the Russian president Vladimir Putin is a tough dictator. This makes the situation very unpredictable.
– Dictators are quick to react. If you think about the coming winter, the energy crisis and warfare, then the dictator can make his decision extremely quickly, if it is compared to the West and, for example, the EU’s sanctions decisions.
Although the Russian representative admitted defeat in the Kharkiv region, the criticism in Russia is not directed at Putin on a large scale. The Kremlin is trying to divert the blame away from Putin’s neck and instead blame the Russian military leadership if necessary.
– Attacking Ukraine still has broad support among Russians. Criticizing its management is a completely different matter.
– It has been the custom of dictators throughout history to always look for scapegoats. At that stage, when things have gone really badly, the dictator has often taken control himself.
Laaksonen considers it possible that Putin would start interfering in operational activities past the generals.
– If you think about the mental landscape of Putin or earlier dictators, it is typical that the voice of reason remains in the background and emotion takes over when things go badly. Then quick impulsive decisions are made, which lead to a bad outcome, because the professionals of the war are ignored.
Laaksonen estimates that Russia can still toughen its rhetoric. It can maintain nuclear deterrence and threaten to use the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant as a “dirty bomb”.
“In Russia, the masses matter, individuals don’t”
According to Laaksonen, the fact that the number of fallen in Russia is not counted in the same way as in Western countries also affects the war settings.
– In Russia, the masses matter, but individuals mean nothing. Defeats do not create the same emotional reaction as in the West. Russians are used to the fact that when there is a war, there are many victims. It is accepted in a completely different way than in the West.
Lasse Laaksonen, docent of military history, states that the influence of information in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been of a completely different order than in previous wars. Ukraine has succeeded in information warfare much better than Russia.
In past wars, information, truthful or distorted, has been much less available.
– Now we receive information from all sides: from individual people’s cell phones and from official and unofficial organizations. Information is disseminated, modified and manipulated. There is an information boom and no one really knows what is true and what is false. The fog of war has thickened.
Laaksonen considers the energy crisis caused by Russia to be a new and even revolutionary feature compared to previous wars.
– Energy is clearly Russia’s offensive weapon. Russia is trying to erode the European front with it.
More on the topic:
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Vladimir Putin’s war is going badly – three reasons why the position of the Russian president is still not shaken
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