Israel is waging a merciless war against the extremist organization Hamas in Gaza.
The trigger was an exceptionally brutal attack by Hamas on Israel. In addition to Hamas fighters, tens of thousands of civilians die in the war that has lasted for more than half a year. Even half of Gaza is in ruins.
The International Court of Justice warns Israel and its supporters against committing genocide.
Less attention has been paid to what happens after the war. We asked two experts how the future of Gaza should be organized.
– Things have to be done in a radically different way now. I hope that the current situation, where there are only losers, will not be accepted, says the project manager of the conflict resolution organization CMI Cecilia Pellosniemi.
According to Pellosniemi, the only way to peace is a thorough improvement of Palestinian rights, while ensuring Israel’s security.
The attack by Hamas brought the two-state model back to the table
Since the establishment of the state of Israel, there has been talk of the so-called two-state model, i.e. the coexistence of the state of Israel and Palestine.
The model has not been realized, even though the Palestinian state is already recognized by almost 140 countries.
– The most important thing is not how many recognize the Palestinian state. After 30 years of reflection, we finally have to move on to the concrete, Pellosniemi says.
According to him, the Palestinians need, for example, a port and a functioning economic zone from which you can enter and exit. They also talk about an independent customs policy and taxation that is not administered by Israel.
Restoring the viability of the Palestinian state is a big job. Long occupation and wars are the main reasons for the exhaustion of the infrastructure needed for the state.
Another Middle East expert also says that we must now talk about the two-state model. Joost Hiltermann’s according to Hamas attacks brought the model to the table again, despite the fact that Hamas is not known as a supporter of the model. Hiltermann works at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
– Realizing the Palestinians’ own state is very difficult, but it is the only solution to the conflict, says Hiltermann.
Support for the two-state model among Gazans seems to have grown significantly since the start of the war, to more than 60 percent.
On the attached map you can see two Palestinian territories: Gaza and the West Bank. A more detailed map of Gaza can be found behind the plus sign.
There is no Palestinian state in Netanyahu’s vision
However, concrete new initiatives are lacking.
One of the few publicized plans for the future of Gaza after the war comes from the Israeli prime minister From Benjamin Netanyahu. He presented earlier in the spring “The Day After Hamas” plan.
It does not have a unified Palestinian state linking Gaza and the West Bank. Gaza would be administered by “local authorities with no ties to terrorism.”
Joost Hiltermann knocks out Netanyahu’s visions.
None of the Palestinian authorities appointed by Israel would have the support of the Palestinian population, says Hiltermann.
– Netanyahu is more interested in continuing the war than in what happens in Gaza after the war, says the head of ICG’s Middle East and North Africa unit.
Cecilia Pellosniemi also says that many Israelis think that Netanyahu is securing his own position instead of thinking about the interests of Israeli society.
According to international law, Israel is still the occupier of Gaza
Both interviewees say that according to international law experts, Israel is still the occupier of Gaza – despite the fact that the Israeli army withdrew from the area in 2005. This is also the position of the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Because of this, according to humanitarian law, Israel has a special obligation to take care of the safety of the residents of Gaza, Pellosniemi and Hiltermann emphasize.
The basis is that, although Israel had no troops in Gaza for a long time before the current war, it still dominates the area from the air, from the sea and, for example, in terms of information technology.
– Israel can also close the border between Gaza and Egypt whenever it wants, says Hiltermann.
Israel, on the other hand, says that it no longer occupies Gaza. After the departure of the Israeli forces, and after the second main Palestinian party, Fatah, lost the elections in 2006, Hamas took power in Gaza.
“There needs to be a change in mindset in Israel”
According to Pellosniemi, the two-state model could also improve Israel’s own security. Realizing this would require a change in mindset in Israel.
The Israelis would have to give up something in order to get more security. According to Pellosniemi, this is what many experts say.
– Building more walls doesn’t help. Security improves by giving rights and a dignified life to Palestinians, Pellosniemi says
Netanyahu’s plans do not have international support either.
President of the United States Joe Biden has begun to increasingly criticize Israel for its heavy-handed actions in Gaza, even though the arms aid has not been reduced.
Iran’s missile and drone attacks by Israel a week ago, however, have changed the situation again.
– Because of the Iranian attack, Biden is forced to change his attitude towards the Palestinians, at least momentarily, to be more critical for internal political reasons, Pellosniemi believes.
Last night, Israel launched a missile attack on Iran.
The US presidential election lurks in the background
However, the United States is the only one that can put pressure on Israel if it wants to.
Pellosniemen says that if the Palestinian state is to be promoted, the international community should do it before the US presidential elections at the end of the year.
– Donald Trump’s a victory can change the situation so much that there is no possibility for the Palestinians to establish their own state.
In addition, the situation on the West Bank is getting worse all the time. According to Pellosniemi, there is too little talk about it.
Benjamin Netanyahu is also aiming for time-out. He is trying to stay in power at least until the US elections.
Pellosniemi is also concerned that talk about the Palestinians is often linked to terrorism and violence.
– Most of the residents of Gaza just want to live in peace and democratic conditions.