The concern concerns, among other things, wheat. However, Africa imports two thirds of the wheat it consumes from Russia and Ukraine, respectively 3rd and 8th world producers. And now that the two countries are at war, this poses the threat of serious disruption to this market on which the food of millions of Africans depends.
Wheat is everywhere: in bread, in pasta… affordable and hitherto very common products which could however become more expensive and perhaps rarer in Africa.
Because the main outlet for wheat grown in Russia and Ukraine, respectively 1st and 5th world exporters, is Africa. And the continent has a few large consumers, who are sometimes very dependent: on its own, according to the FAO, Egypt buys 50% of the wheat imported from Russia to Africa. And this represents 85% of its stocks, the remaining 15% coming from Ukraine… Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa follow, which mainly supply Moscow and in Kyiv. Morocco, Tunisia and Ethiopia are also big importers, but they have diversified their suppliers.
But prices have already taken 15 dollars per ton since January. And even if two thirds of the Russian wheat produced in 2021 is already exported, we still expect a price increase of around 30% if Russia no longer has access to the market. And to Russia’s economic isolation could be added the impediment to exports by ship, due to the impossibility of using ports or sea routes, or even the difficulty of insuring ships in a context of war.