At 44 days from the first round of the presidential election, the campaign is hit by the war in Ukraine. Russian threats at the gates of Europe occupy all the space. Candidates are forced to adapt. But it is above all Emmanuel Macron who must change his plans.
Everything is ready for his declaration of candidacy. The president only has to press the button. The plan is simple: an announcement in the middle of next week, then a meeting in Marseille on Saturday March 5. But the least we can say is that Emmanuel Macron has something else in mind: Ukraine, morning, noon and evening. Between European summit, G7 videoconference, and phone calls to Vladimir Putin, the head of state is far, very far from the presidential campaign.
The president-candidate or the candidate-president will still remain above the fray. Not by choice, but well obliged, constrained by Vladimir Putin. The master of the clocks is no longer at the Élysée, but at the Kremlin.
An advantage for Macron?
In a crisis, the French traditionally turn to the president. We saw it during the Covid. Emmanuel Macron’s opponents did not take advantage of this, the head of state’s popularity rating remained high. Today the president suit in times of war accentuates even more the gap between the one who is at the helm of the country and those who would like to replace him.
On the one hand, Emmanuel Macron as protective president, head of the European Union; on the other, adversaries who can only hold him accountable. The Head of State multiplies gestures to play this card: solemn address yesterday, face to face this Friday morning at the Elysée with his predecessors François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, message to Parliament in the afternoon. Another speech against the French is not excluded.
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The president will have to endorse the costume of candidate before March 4, date on which the Constitutional Council will validate the candidatures. But in what form? In the middle of the war in Ukraine, how to appear on a rally stage with music and applause? And if his coming to the Agricultural Show this Saturday is for the moment maintained, allusions to his candidacy or a marathon day with farmers are excluded. The Élysée will rather organize a sober visit. For now, Emmanuel Macron’s campaign plan is on hold.
An anesthetized campaign
If Valérie Pécresse, Anne Hidalgo or Éric Zemmour have resumed their travels today, the countryside is crushed, partly anesthetized by the war in Ukraine. Difficult, if not impossible, to impose another subject in the debate. All the candidates have made statements on the subject. Some even had to perform beautiful acrobatic figures, in the volte-face category.
In this exercise, Éric Zemmour won first prize. The Reconquest candidate! is a great admirer of the head of the Kremlin. In 2018, he ” dreamed of a French Poutine “. Five days ago, he downplayed American alerts about a Russian intervention speaking of ” propaganda ” the United States. Coaster this Thursday: Éric Zemmour condemns the Russian operation. And to make it quite clear, a sign specified it in black and white on his desk.
Marine Le Pen, she also did not believe in this Russian attack in Ukraine. She also changed feet yesterday. On the far left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is pinned. The candidate of insubordinate France is criticized for having said that “ NATO was the aggressor “.
In this context, the candidate of the National Rally Marine Le Pen expects a lightning campaign from the outgoing president. It will be very difficult for presidential candidates to attack Emmanuel Macron, the opportunities will be rarer than expected, the head of state will be less damaged than the others in the electoral battle.
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