The war in Ukraine, an unexpected ally of French defense

A good hearer! On one of the walls of the room of the National Assembly housing the very discreet Defense and Armed Forces Committee, the words of General de Gaulle resonate with current events. “Defence! This is the first raison d’être of the State. It cannot fail without destroying itself.” Obviously, no one in Parliament imagined completing the mandate with a war at the gates of Europe. Nobody, except a handful of deputies who, for five years, have been consulting, hearing, reporting, very often under the media radar, and trying to influence the military financial trajectory of the country.

Among them, Patricia Mirallès (MP for Hérault, La République en Marche, LREM) and Jean-Louis Thiériot (MP for Seine-et-Marne, Les Républicains, LR), authors of an ultra-detailed information report , dedicated to preparing our forces for high-intensity combat. A nine-month work published on February 17, a week just before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Our work aimed to show the state of our forces in the face of a high-intensity war by 2030, with this idea that we must be able to protect ourselves and have a budget to match”, summarizes Patricia Mirallès. And the least we can say is that some figures speak for themselves.

“In one weekend, Scholz changed the course of history”

In 1991, our army had 1,349 main battle tanks. In 2021 there are only 222 left and the projection for 2030 expects barely 200 copies. Ditto for combat aircraft (air and navy): from 686 in 1991, this air fleet has dropped to 254 units in 2021. As for military personnel (including reservists), they were 453,000 at the fall of the USSR, there are only 203,000 left. A disarmament that the former commander of the strategic air forces, General Bruno Maigret, summarizes as follows: “In a high-intensity conflict, with an attrition rate close to that of the Falklands in 1982 (8%), the Air Force would be out of planes in ten days and presumably out of missiles in two days.”

Obviously, the trajectory challenges. However, the French deputies would like to point out that, without the financial effort of the military programming law (LPM) 2019-2025, “which has given the army back to a man’s height”, as Patricia Mirallès reminds us, with 295 billion euros committed over seven years, the fall would be even more dizzying. Within the French Parliament, it is estimated that “this LPM was a catch-up law. It will be necessary to wait until 2025-2031 to really modernize. We will have to keep the financial trajectory”, summarizes a deputy of the outgoing majority.

This national effort is already good news for the members of the French defense industrial and technological base (BITD), which brings together 4,000 companies and 200,000 jobs behind the bridgeheads of Dassault, Naval Group , Thales, Nexter (tanks) or even MBDA (missiles). Because, as recalled at the end of March, the general manager of Dassault Aviation, Eric Trappier, before this famous Defense commission, “the war in Europe is a shock. The threat is at our doorstep. We must react quickly. is the end of the peace dividend”.

In this sense, “the war in Ukraine is even a ‘game changer for the entire military industry”, abounds a director of Thales. Because the French budgetary effort, sanctuarized at 2% of GDP, is beginning to be legion in Europe. In the wake of France, it is now germany and Sweden which decide to rearm. “In one weekend, Chancellor Scholz changed the course of history by announcing an investment of 100 billion euros in his defence. For us, there is a before and an after February 24, 2022”, confides the owner of a tricolor industrial group.

If no one yet knows the precise signs of this XXL envelope, Germany has already hastened to fall into the arms of the Americans by announcing the purchase of F-35 fighter planes rather than our Rafales in order to be able to quickly assume its share in NATO (these planes will charge the American nuclear deterrent). To tell the truth, this choice did not surprise any French boss in the sector, but it raises questions. “The big danger is that these investments will feed American industry. This would have a contradictory and destructive effect on European industry, as we try to encourage people to work together”, warns Eric Béranger, CEO of the missile MBDA and Chairman of the Defense Committee within the Council of French Defense Industries (Cidef).

Moreover, an example perfectly illustrates this problem: the future Eurodrone. If the order for 60 units of these small planes that are piloted remotely was recorded a few weeks ago by the main European countries for an amount of 7.1 billion euros, its designer, Airbus, chose a Italian engine, the Catalyst, developed by Avio, a subsidiary of the American General Electric. And this, to the detriment of the French specialist Safran, which was precisely proposing to work in concert with other European partners. The first steps of the Europe of defense already give no sign of continental preference.

Vulnerability of the subcontracting chain

To counterattack, Eric Trappier, who hopes to take the leadership against Airbus for the future European combat aircraft (Scaf), expected for 2040, calls on “private shareholders to enter into defense activities” since “the state cannot do everything”, as he hammered at the end of March in the face of parliamentarians. To tell the truth, the investors preceded his call if one believes the stock market prices of the French industrialists for whom the war plays the allies. In six weeks, Thales shares have taken 40%! Dassault? Almost 30%! “Investors are reassessing the growth potential of defense companies and some have less afraid of ESG criteria [NDLR : environnementaux, sociaux et de gouvernance]“, explains an expert.

Indeed, the prospect of stricter regulations on the part of Europe on the ecological or responsible dimension has scared away certain funds, in particular German ones, which had set the rule of excluding from their investments companies making more than 5 % of their turnover in tobacco, coal or weapons. Manufacturers were also afraid of seeing investors leave because of the new European taxonomy or the application of eco-labels to their product.

“I’m tired of hearing that contributing to defense is the same as alcohol or tobacco. Believe me, there are no labels or taxonomy for Americans or Europeans who buy American”, vilified Eric Trappier in front of the deputies. “Good news, with the war, these malicious NGOs have been muted, comments a French boss who remains on his guard. The danger is that after the phase of emotion and urgency, these speeches are likely to reappear in Brussels.”

This scenario could hamper the recovery, while the construction site is enormous. “We will need support to put defense back at the heart of society. We have been deindustrialized for years and we will need arms within fifteen to twenty years because we are going to renew our entire National Navy”, abounded Pierre Eric Pommellet, CEO of Naval Group, during this same parliamentary hearing.

In their report, MPs Mirallès and Thiériot precisely pointed out the vulnerability of the subcontracting chain and the risk of loss of skills. An additional danger, knowing that it will be necessary to quickly restore the stocks of the armies. “The steel manufacturing cycle for a Caesar cannon is eighteen months. To be ready in a year, we have to start now”, press Marc Darmon, deputy general manager of Thales and president of the Groupement des industries land defenses.

This question of supply was also put on the table by the general delegate for armaments, Joël Barre. During his final hearing behind closed doors in Parliament, the latter made it clear to MEPs that certain ammunition is no longer even fired in training because its price has become prohibitive. This is notably the case of the Milan anti-tank missiles (6,000 euros per unit). A precise, mobile and ultra-powerful weapon, that France has precisely delivered to the Ukrainians. And who, with the mini-attack drones manufactured by the Turks and the American Javelin missiles, participated in stemming the onslaught of Russian troops in Ukraine.