When are we going to enter the “war economy” promised by Emmanuel Macron? This is the question that many domestic arms manufacturers are asking. While they were confronted until February 24 with pressure on their production capacities, while their sources of financing with banks were disrupted by the activism of NGOs, the conflict in Ukraine drove away the clouds and acted as a call for air. “If the first signs are positive, orders are long overdue,” says a French industrialist.
Since the start of the school year, however, a trilogue has been established between the staffs of the forces, the general directorate of Armaments (DGA) and the industrialists (Dassault, Safran, Nexter, Thales, MBDA, etc.). With the political power as a conductor, responsible for designing the future format of the French armies via the next military programming law (LPM) 2024-2030. A roadmap could be adopted by the Council of Ministers in early 2023, before its presentation to Parliament in the spring. But the method of the executive challenges: unlike previous framework texts, this LPM will not be the subject of a white paper written by experts, which frustrates certain military oils. “The speech of the President of the Republic in Toulon on November 9 did not remove the doubts. No concrete order announcement has been made by the Chief of the Armed Forces”, regrets a former French general. The time is rather for the budgetary negotiations of the LPM, Emmanuel Macron having to negotiate the final volume of credits with part of the opposition, led by the Republicans, whose elected officials occupy key positions in the Defense Committees of Parliament.
Bercy, in search of savings, hopes to impose an overall budget of 370 billion euros, certainly a sharp increase (53 billion euros on average per year, against 44 billion planned for 2023, including 2 billion just to buy ammunition), but very far from the 430 billion euros claimed by the general staff of the armies. For its part, the Hôtel de Brienne plays the conciliator by asking for 410 billion euros. “Today, everyone is watching, but I don’t think we will fall below the symbolic threshold of 400 billion euros. And we will have to integrate correction indices according to inflation”, already warns Jean-Louis Thiériot, LR deputy for Seine-et-Marne and vice-president of the National Assembly’s Defense Committee.
The now famous Caesar cannon
If major programs, such as the Franco-German projects for the fighter plane (Scaf) and tank (MGCS) of the future or those relating to the successor to the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (Pang project) and elements of the fleet (nuclear attack submarine, frigate, patrol boat), are already in the pipeline, these budget lines aim above all to stop the aging of equipment and ensure that it is maintained in operational condition. “French industry is cut to the smallest. The difficulty is to readapt the industrial tool to greater needs while national orders are still limited”, indicates Julien Malizard, deputy holder of the defense economics chair. of the IHEDN.
To ensure its back, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has even drawn up a list, its top 12 of weapon systems essential to hold a high intensity conflict. In particular, there is the now famous Caesar cannon, of which France has delivered 24 copies (including 6 initially intended for Denmark) since the start of the conflict, i.e. a quarter of its stock. To top up the levels, the State has just placed a new order with its manufacturer, Nexter. But it will take until 2024 for everything to be delivered, the first parts to be machined in early 2023 according to an internal source.
Currently, it takes eighteen months to release a complete Caesar (barrel and chassis). Sébastien Lecornu, the Minister of the Armed Forces, wants Nexter to reduce production time to twelve months, for example by doubling the line of its Bourges factory. The teams have already gone back to 3 x 8, but the operation, under study, would cost according to our information 500 to 600 million euros of investment. “Nexter already has stock problems on the tubes, and only five people capable of calibrating the cylinder heads. They will only go all out if there are very long-term orders to amortize”, confides a regular visitor to the site. It must be said that behind the scenes “some manufacturers were angry with Macron, who asked them to produce more, but without having placed firm orders”, blows an expert in the sector. Result: despite the demands of the executive, some major French arms producers are not yet running at 100% capacity.
“It is SMEs that create innovation”
To improve things, on the side of the DGA, it is emphasized that “the armies must also express a simpler need, because each option on equipment is an obstacle to going quickly”. For his part, Sébastien Lecornu would like to vote on a text aimed at “prioritizing national military orders”, according to his entourage, a kind of queue jump to buy raw materials or certain sensitive parts. No question, however, of crossing the Rubicon of requisition. Another priority is support for subcontractors, who are taking the brunt of inflation. “Inventory starts with SMEs. For Dassault to assemble a Rafale, certain parts are produced thirty months in advance, indicates Xavier Tytelman, former fighter pilot and president of Aviation NXT. SMEs must therefore recruit, and struggling a bit, when they are often the ones who create innovation.”
Moreover, of the 4,000 French companies that make up the defense industrial and technological base (BITD), around a hundred have been targeted by State services as having “structuring brakes” and “unable to ensure their total control purchase”. This is the case for example of the national powder industry, the executive being now convinced that it must be rebuilt. “For large-caliber shells [NDLR : notamment les 155 mm du Caesar]the modular load is made in France [NDLR : chez Eurenco à Bergerac], but the base powder is processed at Nitrochemie, a German-Swiss company. However, we no longer wish to depend on a foreign source”, warns the cabinet of Sébastien Lecornu.
Reflection has also begun on small arms. Due to a global market that has become overcapacity, no more military models are manufactured in France. The DGA does not encounter any problems with its purchases. But one stress testing is in progress, and a French sector could see the light of day again. While “the war in Ukraine has shown the centrality of land combat”, as a former general reminds us, will France wait for the arrival of the tank of the future? Or will it relaunch the production of the Leclerc tank, the last lines of which were dismantled fourteen years ago? Still, with just 200 copies in staffing in the tricolor ranks, the stock would be very thin in the event of a major conflict.
Sébastien Pommier, with Clément Daniez