While the tactical war is ongoing along the front lines and fought by Ukrainian soldiers, strategic attacks in Russia and conflict over grain across the Black Sea have raised the war to a “strategic level”, says Peter Lidén of the Norwegian Defense Academy.
– They are moving towards targets in depth in Russia and there has been a conflict around the Black Sea with the grain agreement. It is a natural development, but it is not a given that it is what the outside world has wanted. But have wanted to prevent it from escalating, which it is doing now in various respects, says Peter Lidén, former defense attaché in Kiev.
In the past week, drone attacks have been carried out against financial districts in Moscow.
– Ukraine has not taken responsibility for the attacks as such, but if you look at pictures and video clips, they were carried out with the type of drones that have just started to be manufactured in Ukraine, of the Beaver type, which has a range of 100 kilometers, says Peter Lidén.
The tactic: Knock out the artillery first
Russia’s deeply fortified defense line along the front has posed difficult problems for Ukraine.
– The Russians have superiority in the air and they have had nine months to fortify themselves, above all in southern Ukraine, says Peter Lidén, and continues:
– When Ukrainian forces stop to clear mines, they are very vulnerable from aircraft, attack helicopters and artillery. What they had to do there was knock out Russian artillery in advance so as not to become too vulnerable.
“Pretty hard pressed”
But now some geographical progress is visible, and potential gaps.
– It is starting to move forward now in such a way that it is actually noticeable geographically as well.
Russian front defense is divided into three lines, of which Ukraine has not actually broken through the first. But there has been speculation that Russia is finding it difficult to supply the main defense with soldiers and that reservists are being brought in at the front of the front line.
– There are many indications that Russia deployed its reserves in the first line, and in that case it suggests that they are quite hard pressed and that Ukraine can, once you get through the first defense, advance quite quickly, Lidén says.
The British Ministry of Defense writes in it latest update that Russian forces at the towns of Orichiv and Velyka Novosilka in the Zaporizhzhya region are probably beginning to tire as they have not been rotated out for rest since the counteroffensive began in early June.