After this weekend’s armed revolt against Moscow, the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is now in Belarus.
It has given rise to the theory that Russia is creating a new front north of Kiev.
– It should not be ruled out that that possibility exists, says Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen.
Ukraine has long suspected a new front in Belarus to be attacked from the north. And since the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, took control of Belarus, suspicions have only increased.
– Ukrainian units have already been allocated to the region north of Kiev. And we know that the distance between Belarus and Kiev is not that far, so there is an opportunity from the Russian side to influence the offensive going on in southern Ukraine, says Johan Huovinen.
The lieutenant colonel believes that the probability of a new front has increased, but that it is still not known what is behind Lukashenko’s initiative to bring Prigozhin and Wagner to Belarus.
– The focus of the Ukrainian side is primarily Zaporizhzhya and to the east, but we have also seen that the Ukrainian side has crossed the river with smaller units in the Kherson region.
“Takes kilometer by kilometer”
Ukraine is already working on at least two fronts, and should there be a third, it will require resources, says Huovinen. But Wagner’s armed revolt, which left the unit without leadership for 48 hours, also opened a door for Ukraine.
– There was an opportunity to act when the Russian army was out of balance, and it can be assumed that the Ukrainian armed forces have taken that into account, says Huovinen.
– But if you push too hard, it can instead unite the Russian side. But it looks like they have seized the opportunity and moved forward positions. They take kilometer by kilometer almost daily as it looks right now, says Johan Huovinen.