To prepare for a debate for the right-wing primary in 2021, Michel Barnier agreed to force his nature. “You need to practice by confronting Nadine Morano,” his friends advised him. The former Sarkozy minister with legendary cheekiness is not exactly the Savoyard’s cup of tea, although he had listened and trained with her.
Force your nature. The Prime Minister had not set foot in the chamber for fifteen years, a chamber in which he himself had not sat for thirty-one years. The rebellious Louis Boyard was 5 years old, the brothelization had no value as a political strategy. A close friend of the head of government alerted Matignon, a few days before his general policy declaration: “He must not speak to the deputies but to the French. Above all, he must not stop, otherwise the others will lash out. ” Michel Barnier probably already knew it, but it’s better to say it.
There was a time when Michel Barnier spoke of “ruptures”. It was on the first day of his life as head of government, on the steps of Matignon. Tuesday October 1, in front of the deputies, he avoided repeating the same term and instead had to emphasize that he was only there “as long as you decide”, then to repeat, at the end of his remarks, when discussing his fate: “It is you who have the key in your hands.”
No ideological shift too steep
A new situation, a new attitude. A Prime Minister not applauded when speaking for the first time in front of the National Assembly has never been seen before. 47 enthusiastic DR (Republican Right) deputies is a bit short in this fragmented Assembly.
A Prime Minister unable to make an announcement on the day of his general policy declaration is not common either. He is no longer a Prime Minister, he is Matignon’s Venus de Milo. Which launches a “reflection” on proportional representation”, a “reflection” on adjustments to the law on pensions, which undertakes to “look at ways of increasing the skills of local authorities”, “to study an idea, a national day of citizen consultation”, “resuming the dialogue on the end of life”…
Which finally returns left and right to their “ideological impasses” on immigration. No, he will tackle the subject with “lucidity” and “pragmatism”. And it is not a few legislative announcements – resumption of the agricultural orientation bill, text on the violence of minors or on the recognition of the expertise of nurses – which will turn the table. But necessity is law. Michel Barnier cannot take too steep an ideological turn, at the risk of losing part of his crew. His heterogeneous coalition must be managed with skill.
For Michel Barnier, it is easier to be applauded against, “no tolerance towards racism and anti-Semitism”, “no accommodation on secularism”, “no rollback of the Veil law or of the PMA”. Easier to be applauded for a tribute to the French killed in Lebanon in 1983. Easier to announce a postponement (that of the elections in New Caledonia) than major reforms.
“Unlike the great geniuses who preceded him, he doesn’t have a big plan, it’s day by day,” confided a devotee of Michel Barnier before the DPG. This is the Prime Minister’s calculation: playing opinion against the parties, taking advantage of a devastated political landscape to try to find a way forward. It’s not a dream, he’s not here for that, that’s never been his trademark.
Michel Barnier therefore calls the French to witness in his tough battle. “They ask us to overcome our divisions and our quarrels and to act in the best interests of the country,” he says at the end of his speech. He lets his Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau roll out his right-wing proposals in the media, which are endorsed by opinion surveys. This Tuesday, he is calling for increased tax participation from “large companies which make significant profits” or from “the wealthiest French people” to reduce the public deficit. Does he cross a “red line” drawn by Macronists? Well, let them explain themselves to the people! “Barnier sticks to opinion, notes an EPR deputy. We are rightly shouting about Retailleau’s outings, but some are popular. If we are more obtuse on taxes, we will get screwed.”
“Balance point”
In 2021, Michel Barnier established himself as a favorite in the LR primary thanks to a restrained, even soporific style. This rhetoric had protected it from internal attacks for a time, as it offered little leverage to its competitors. When we listen to it, we yawn more than we scream. What if this character trait was an asset in this fragmented Assembly? Dante’s hell was predicted for the new Prime Minister, promised to be shot at by the Rebels. By his monotone and his consensual remarks, he anesthetized them.
They would have liked to sigh less. The deputies of the central bloc entered the hemicycle full of questions about the orientations of the head of government. They came out with the same doubts. “Very bad, both in substance and in form. We’re not holding anything back,” says a member of the ex-majority. “It’s not a DPG but a declaration of good intentions,” mocks an Ensemble pour la République (EPR) executive. “His room for maneuver is so narrow that he takes no risks,” adds a Horizons counterpart.
Michel Barnier is a piece of evidence. In the central block, he welcomes him with suspicion. In this hemicycle, which sometimes considers him illegitimate to exercise these functions, he comes from a party with 47 deputies, he more comfortable in defending the compromise dear to the European Parliament more than to the National Assembly. The Prime Minister brings gifts to these guests. To the Macronists, he credits an increase in France’s capacity for innovation “under the leadership of the Head of State and his governments since 2017”. In Parliament, he shows his credentials. Yes, the government will rely more on its work.
The day before his appointment, Michel Barnier confided to a faithful: “I think that we can be the lowest common denominator. “No, you are the point of balance”, replied the elected official. That we are far from the classic figures of the Fifth For him to be a leader of the majority, he lacks two things: that he is a leader and that there is a majority.
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