The US stands in the way of Chinese invasion

The presidential candidate China wanted to avoid wins the election in Taiwan.

– China will show its displeasure, for sure, says Sweden’s former Beijing ambassador Börje Ljunggren.

But will Beijing stop there?

Taiwan is China’s Taiwan, the Chinese government has announced after the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the Taiwanese presidential election with candidate Lai Ching-Te – who has been called a “troublemaker” and “warmonger” by Beijing.

Chinese President Xi Jinping constantly claims that a reunification of China and Taiwan is a “historical inevitability”.

But the DPP is the one of the parties that most strives for independence from China – and wins for the third term in a row.

The Taiwanese want to claim their right as a successful democracy, says Ljunggren.

The tensions will remain

The tensions between Taiwan and China will persist, while Beijing must realize that the country’s actions strengthen a party like the DPP, notes Ljunggren.

But he doesn’t think Beijing will change its behavior.

– China will show its displeasure, for sure.

At the same time, he believes that Beijing understands that it would provoke very strong reactions from the outside world if it went from rumbling to aggressive action.

The price will be high, says Ljunggren.

– I hope and believe that Beijing is biding its time.

Even Alexis von Sydow, analyst at the National Knowledge Center on China at the Foreign Policy Institute, considers it too unlikely that China would now attack Taiwan militarily. There are no signs that an invasion is imminent, he believes.

“Not strong enough”

There are also question marks about China’s current military capabilities, continues von Sydow.

– China knows that if they start a military conflict with Taiwan, the US will very likely be drawn in. And China probably does not feel strong enough to both carry out an invasion of Taiwan and at the same time repel an American intervention.

More likely, China will continue down the beaten path of influence operations against Taiwan that involve tying groups in Taiwanese society to the Chinese Communist Party and making them work in the party’s interests.

– It is a strategy that has been in place for decades and that the Taiwanese have had to deal with for a very long time, says von Sydow.