According to the expert, the package that solves the problems of the Ukrainian aid and the Mexican border would be too big a victory for President Biden for the Republicans to allow.
In the United States, the negotiators of the main parties are preparing a compromise proposal for a huge financial and legal package of 110 billion dollars, or about 101 billion euros. The package includes financial support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, as well as laws restricting entry at the border with Mexico.
It would be extremely important for Ukraine, in particular, for the US support to continue. At the moment, Ukraine does not receive direct support for its war effort from the United States, because the funds intended for it have run out. Russia knows this and can take advantage of the opportunity when Ukraine’s supply situation deteriorates.
The compromise proposal may be completed as early as today, Friday. A senator representing the Democrats Chuck Schumer has announced that the presentation will be presented to the representatives no later than Sundayin order to get to the polls next week.
The performance of the show is far from certain. Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson has stated that “the show is dead at birth”. Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump strongly opposes compromise.
What do Republicans want?
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Maria Lindén estimates that the negotiators are trying to find a compromise that would be acceptable to both parties. However, there is another thing that the majority of the Republican Party wants.
President Joe Biden and his Democrats want to continue supporting Ukraine. For Republicans, Ukraine is not at all as important. They have long emphasized the problem posed by immigrants coming through the southern border of the United States. In a compromise, an attempt is made to find a solution to both of these issues.
Cracking down on immigration is a difficult issue for Democrats, but Biden recently changed his stance on it and now accepts the crackdown.
– The border situation is really a problem and even the Democrats know it. Biden would also benefit from it if he could make a compromise where he could put the responsibility on the shoulders of the Republicans but solve the border problem. At the same time, he could change the image of many voters that his border policy has failed, says Lindén.
Now Republicans have realized that accepting the compromise would actually benefit Biden.
– The Republicans have claimed to their voters that the border situation is important to them. Now it’s an election year and the political game gets uglier every year. It seems that intervening in the situation is not as important to them as making sure that Biden does not get a political victory in the election year, Lindén reflects.
Even if tightening immigration would be a difficult issue for the left wing of the Democrats, the passage of the compromise would be too big a victory for Biden for the Republicans as a whole.
Confrontation paralyzes politics
In order for the proposal to be approved, it requires a qualified majority in both houses of Congress. The American political system is structured in such a way that a sufficient majority is required to pass motions. This, in turn, requires the parties’ ability to agree on issues, Lindén states.
The system has indeed worked, but in recent years, under Trump’s leadership, those who make compromises have started to be accused of being traitors, says Lindén. Since compromises are no longer accepted and the country is fairly evenly divided between the parties, political decision-making is paralyzed.
“Pottery and bullheadedness have started to be idealized at the expense of the system’s ability to function. It is precisely Trump’s creation, a very problematic manifestation of Trumpism, says Lindén.
If the legal and financial package does not seem to get enough support in Congress, the negotiations to solve the problems will probably continue. However, Lindén considers it possible that if Ukraine’s support package does not go through now, it will not proceed any further before the presidential elections in November.
Sources: AP, Reuters