The US could become like Northern Ireland

An unwanted election result, i.e. one in which Donald Trump is not the winner, may be met with violence by the US extreme right, warns terror expert Jacob Ware.

– The January 6 extremists did not achieve their goals, but may succeed next time.

The newspaper headlines and social media plays speak for themselves: Donald Trump and those close to him are warning of riots and bloodshed if the former president loses the election or becomes the subject of more lawsuits.

The arch-conservative former host Tucker Carlson, with tens of millions of followers, writes that the United States is exposed to an “invasion” of “illegal migrants”. And the right-wing super-entrepreneur Elon Musk claims that President Joe Biden’s strategy is to bring as many “illegals” into the United States as possible – to “legalize” them and, with the help of their votes, win the fall elections (in fact, only citizens have voting rights in US presidential elections, and the citizenship process takes many years).

– In the political sphere and in extremist circles, preparations are underway, both to question the election results and for tactically subversive activities, says Swedish-American Ware, who on a daily basis conducts research at the think tank Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.

Steal the election?

Many of the plays are aimed at undermining the fall presidential election in good time, which by all accounts is between the Democrat Biden and the Republican Trump – in the event that Donald Trump loses.

– It is already being said that the left is working to steal the election with immigrant votes or through postal voting, says Ware.

Together with terrorism researcher and professor Bruce Hoffman, he has just published the book “God, Guns, and Sedition” (roughly God, firearms and sedition). In it, they explain the complex rise of far-right terrorism in the modern United States and the movements’ connection to the deadly storming of the Capitol and this year’s election campaign. It is a violent story with references to Christian rhetoric and white power theories.

An important year was 2008, when the US was rocked by an economic crisis at the same time as the country’s first black president, Barack Obama, was elected. The parallel rise of social media meant that hateful rhetoric could be more easily spread and amplified.

The fact that then-President Donald Trump, after the deadly right-wing extremist demonstration in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017, spoke of “nice people on both sides” made many extremists feel protected, Ware points out.

Want to be scared

The former president’s promise to pardon the supporters who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021 has further diluted this.

That the congressional attack was justified is a message now circulating in extremist circles in groups such as the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, according to Ware. He describes the threat to the election as serious and says that everything from intimidation at polling stations to major crimes is being discussed.

– Extremists are fond of saying they should gather at polling stations to monitor or act as police. In fact, they plan to scare.

On a larger scale, Jacob Ware is worried about democracy in the United States. If Trump returns to the White House, it is possible that he will focus on political retribution, appointing only yes-sayers, disbanding parts of the state apparatus and ordering violent crackdowns on immigrants.

And if Joe Biden wins?

– In the worst case, there will be a large-scale, violent reaction. I don’t believe in a civil war, but the situation in the US could be like it was in Northern Ireland, with a protracted, bitter and violent conflict between ethnic groups that in itself is an existential threat to democracy.

On export

During the ongoing election campaign, Donald Trump has repeatedly been criticized for rhetoric that has been compared to that of Nazi leader Adolf Hitler. Like Hitler in the book “Mein Kampf”, Trump has claimed that migrants “poison the blood” in the United States.

The ex-president has compared political opponents to “vermin” and in social media published – and subsequently deleted – a video with headlines that speak of a “unified reich”, roughly a united kingdom. That term is often used of Nazi rule in Germany.

The US is a global trendsetter and Ware fears that such extremism and violent rhetoric will spread.

– We have already seen terrorist acts in Christchurch (in New Zealand) and in many places in Europe, he says.

– In a recent survey, 33 percent of Americans said they thought it was legitimate to resort to violence to defend their opinions. It indicates that we live in a post-democracy.

FACTS Right-wing extremist groups in the United States

Read moreFACTS The storming of the Capitol

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