The Greek government has quickly started preparing a bilateral, military support package for Ukraine. Greece is putting together a package that includes, among other things, armaments and supplies.
Greece did not come up with the aid package on its own, but the request came directly from the United States, which since the end of last year has not been able to agree on the continuation of Ukraine’s support.
The most surprising thing about the Greek aid package is that the equipment to be handed over to Ukraine also comes from the United States. The Greeks told about it media.
– Now that the money is gone, creative solutions will be made, says the docent of military sciences at the Swedish National Defense University Ilmari Käihkö.
It works thus.
The United States donates to Greece, among other things, patrol boats, transport planes and armored vehicles, which it itself does not need.
The president has the right to set a price for the donation, zero dollars, as long as Greece takes care of moving the equipment. There is no need to ask Congress for permission.
The United States has included the donations and their delivery to Ukraine as part of the same agreement by which it sells Greece 40 F-35 fighter jets.
– Yes, the US administration and intelligence services understand that if Ukraine is not supported now and Russia reaches its goal, it will have huge consequences for international security, says Käihkö.
A race against time
Director of the CIA, the US Central Intelligence Agency William Burns wrote this week in Foreign Affairs magazinethat withdrawing support from Ukraine would be “an all-time goal” for the United States.
The Republican-majority House of Representatives has blocked a funding resolution in Congress since late last year.
Käihkö says that the suspension of US support already at this stage has come as a surprise.
– It was believed that the support for Ukraine would continue at least until the end of this year, Käihkö says, referring to the US presidential election in November.
The US internal political twist has shown that Ukraine’s supporters suddenly have one year less time to get replacement support in order.
The race against time is on.
– Europe should decide what we want to happen in Ukraine and then act accordingly. There is no common view of this in Europe, says Käihkö.
On Thursday, the European Union agreed at the summit on the financial aid of 50 billion euros to be given to Ukraine over four years to support the home front.
In the video below, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi thanks the decision.
In addition, a decision is being prepared on the next 5 billion euro military aid through the peace fund.
Europe is being asked about its ability to take risks
Käihkö reminds that bilateral support for Ukraine has grown. Germany has promised to double its aid to eight billion euros this year.
The big question with the US support stalling is that even if there is a will in Europe to support Ukraine, is there the ability to do so.
– This is influenced by the Europeans’ own risk-taking ability, i.e. how much desire and courage there is to transfer material to Ukraine, says Käihkö.
For example, the constant slipping of ammunition promises has shown that producing war material takes time and the support at this stage is specifically out of the countries’ own stockpiles.
– Ensuring Ukraine’s support is about three things: political will, abilities and willingness to bear risk, Käihkö sums up.
Currently, Ukraine is not supported enough compared to its own goals to restore the 1991 borders.
The “year of construction” is going
Last weekend, The Washington Post magazine wrotethat the White House will change its Ukraine strategy this year.
Ukraine will not be able to take back the territories it lost this year. Thus, Ukraine is supported by strengthening its defense force and economy.
– Ukraine currently does not have the resources for a large-scale attack, Käihkö states.
This is visible on the front.
In the summer, Ukraine shot in its attack phase daily an estimated 7,000 rounds and Russia fired 5,000.
Now Ukraine fires 2,000 grenades a day, Russia 10,000.
– This year has been talked about as a construction year, when Ukraine is being prepared for finding an offensive capability in 2025, says Käihkö.
Ukraine is supported, among other things, to build its own defense industry, in which case its dependence on uncertain, external support would decrease.
Russia knows this too. Käihkö points out that this winter Russia has aimed its airstrikes precisely at the defense industry and not at infrastructure targets such as power plants.
There is no good news from the front
Käihkö reminds that the front has not moved much for over a year. However, Russia’s minimum goal is still to permanently annex at least the Donbas of eastern Ukraine.
– Russia continues its attacks and it would probably be good to get something done before that [maaliskuun] presidential elections.
Käihkö regrets that often in the discussion about Ukraine, the opposite party, namely Russia, is forgotten.
– Russia certainly also thinks that Ukraine is now weak and it is worth taking advantage of the opportunity, says Käihkö.
The initiative is at least temporarily more in Russia’s hands. However, according to Käihko, in the light of current information, there is no reason to expect a major collapse in Ukraine.
– Good news from Ukraine should not be expected this year, says Käihkö.