Professor in the department of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, in the United States, Bernard Haykel is a specialist in the Arab-Muslim world and the various Islamist groups in the region. For L’Express, he discusses the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Israeli strategy and the troubles in the Red Sea.
L’Express: What is your feeling afterwards? the death of Hamas number 2Saleh al-Arouri, on January 2, while he was in Beirut?
Bernard Haykel: The Israelis made no secret that they were going to attack Hamas leadership throughout the world. Al-Arouri, they clearly had him and several people around him in their sights. He was a key interlocutor between Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah. I’m not surprised that they went after him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they went after other Hamas leaders, including in other countries around the world. Israel today has a reaction very similar to that which followed the murder of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympic Games in 1972. They are going to attack everyone responsible for October 7. It is also perhaps part of a broader strategy. Looking at the current situation, it seems to me that Israel would like to expand the conflict beyond Gaza. The Israelis are constantly trying to provoke Iran. You see it with the regular attacks against Hezbollah. The Shiite organization has been quite moderate, relatively speaking, not wanting to widen the conflict. Israelis attacked Iranians in Syria [dont le général Razi Moussavi, tué le 28 décembre] and now Hamas number 2, in Lebanon. Tehran’s leaders appear to be cautious and rational and unwilling to expand the conflict. In part, because the Iranians and Hezbollah realize that Israel’s widening of the conflict also constitutes an attempt to involve the United States in the war. However, Iran and its allies do not want a war with the United States.
For several weeks, Houthi rebels have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, significantly disrupting global maritime commercial traffic. A coalition has been formed, but the attacks continue, so there is no way to stop them?
The issue of Houthi rebels could drag the United States into war. I think the Americans are preparing to attack the Houthis directly, the option is being seriously considered.
Maritime corridors off the coast of Yemen, in the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait, under attack from Houthi rebels.
© / AFP
The Houthis don’t want to stop their attacks, or the Iranians don’t want them to stop. I don’t believe the Houthis are operating solo, the Iranians are very involved: all the equipment comes from Iran. Additionally, the Houthi rebels need logistical help to target the ships. Iran currently pursues three objectives, which are being achieved. They want to show that in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, they can block Bab-El-Mandeb and Suez: the three strategic choke points in the Middle East are therefore effectively under Iranian control. The second specific objective of the Houthis is to strengthen their national legitimacy: the group that actually controls the movement is very unpopular. They represent 5 to 10% of the population there, a minority within a minority. The only way to become popular is to wage war against America, Israel and to defend anti-imperialism. The third joint objective of the Houthis and the Iranians amounts to punishing Saudi Arabia and showing it its vulnerability to Houthi power. [NDLR : Riyad est engagé dans le conflit contre les rebelles houthistes depuis 2015.] The Houthis are currently negotiating a permanent ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, and they are trying to extract as much money from them as possible.
And could the Americans go as far as military intervention on Yemeni soil?
The Americans could attack the Houthis in a very small and limited way, for example, a radar installation on the coast, a missile battery, etc., in a “pin-prick” operation. Or they could launch a much larger and more devastating attack, including sending ground troops into Yemen. The small-attack approach is not favored by the Saudis, as they believe it would only strengthen the Houthis. If the Americans do something, it must be more sustainable, much more effective, the most likely option so far. The Saudis do not want to provoke the Houthis, because the Houthis threaten to attack them if they join the coalition [de 20 pays menée par les Etats-Unis]. And the Saudis are very vulnerable to missiles and drones from Yemen. They are an easy target because of the oil installations etc. Another thing to keep in mind: what is happening in Bab-El-Mandeb is also being watched very closely by China: they are watching how the Americans behave to restore maritime security of navigation. This will have implications for the Taiwan Strait [où des élections cruciales se déroulent le 13 janvier].
Does the fact that Israel is starting to attack external targets again amount to recognizing a relative failure in Gaza?
The goal of completely destroying Hamas militarily is going to take a long time. The Israelis recognized from the start the difficulty of the task. They always said it would take a year, at least. Destroying Hamas completely is almost impossible, because there is a political and ideological dimension to the movement. His popularity has increased among Palestinians since the October 7 attack. The Israelis may have other goals, such as expelling all Palestinians from Gaza, or expanding the war so that they can even expel Palestinians from the West Bank. There are different factions in Israel, some much more radical, who would like to eliminate all Palestinians. Others who have less extreme ambitions. There is also much confusion in Israel about the outcome, even if they were to succeed in destroying Hamas. For example, who would rule Gaza? I’m not sure the Israelis have the answers to all these questions.
Will the war take on another dimension? We are already in a regional conflict, with everything we have mentioned, the Houthis, Iran, Hezbollah.
If you listen to Hezbollah, we are already in a regional conflict. Iran, supporter of Hezbollah, wants above all to secure the regime of the Islamic Republic, destroy Israel and expel America from the region. These objectives are therefore regional, not just about Palestine. Even if the Palestinians are very important to the Iranians because they allow Tehran to forget that they are neither Arab nor Sunni. It is a Shiite power, involved in the murder of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs in Syria and Iraq.
How do you view the attack on Iran on January 3, during the ceremonies commemorating the death of General Soleimani? It is the worst attack committed in Iran in its recent history and a major security breach.
I knew from the announcement that it was not Israel, because Israel does not carry out these kinds of attacks with many victims. So it seemed to me that it was an extremist Islamic group. I didn’t know which one. ISIS has claimed it, and there is an ongoing war between ISIS and Iran. It does not only concern Palestine: there is a dimension of confrontation between Shiites and Sunnis in the current conflicts in the Middle East.
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