In its biannual report, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts that uncertainties and poor growth prospects ” will continue to plague the global economy “, even if its forecasts at the beginning of the year have been revised upwards.
With our correspondent in New York, Carrie Nooten
I’Mondial economy should not reach the 3.1% growth estimated in 2022 this year, but should cap at 2.3%. The main culprits: the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the worsening impact of climate change and the war in Ukraine.
The UN initially predicts a slight recovery in economic growth in the United States, the European Union and China, better than its forecasts six months ago. The US economy should grow by 1.1% instead of just 0.4 points, thanks to household spending. Thanks to the same resilience of consumption and the fall in the price of gasoline, European growth will be 0.9% and not 0.2% this year. Finally, China benefited from a sharp recovery with the lifting of restrictions due to Covid-19, and its growth should now increase from 4.8% to 5.3% in 2023.
However, despite the improved outlook for these three areas, the UN is very concerned because growth in per capita income remains much weaker everywhere compared to the average for the past twenty years. And especially in developing regions where they were already quite low, well below the global growth average of 3.8%. The gap is widening particularly with Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and Africa. Coupled with higher inflation in many developing countries, there is an increased risk of poverty and hunger.
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