It is a real stock market rally that French banks have lived in recent months. Since January 1, the titles of establishments that have been stores such as Crédit Agricole, BNP Paribas and Société Générale have jumped from 20 % to 50 %. This trend even affects all of Europe. National flagships such as the Italian Unicredit, Spanish Santander and German Commerzbank have seen their courses fly away from around 40 to 50 % this year. Why this renewed attraction for this sector, neglected for fifteen years? It is first explained by a change in monetary environment. From the 2008 financial crisis to that of the COVIR in 2020, the retail banks suffered the full force of the accommodating policy of central banks, which set interest rates close to zero, even negative.
High yield
With the brutal increase in inflation started in 2021, these institutions had to raise their guiding rates, allowing banks to improve their commercial performance. “While their level of profitability is around, or even exceeds, that of their Anglo-Saxon counterparts, the European banks remained strongly discussed, observes Olivier Cornuot, director of collective management in Matignon Finances. The return of positive rates justifies the interest of investors and their upgrading on the stock market. Submitted to reinforced European regulation in order to limit the risks of solvency and liquidity, today appear with solid balance sheets and excess capital that they can redistribute to their shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks.
Admittedly, after the rise in courses recorded since the start of the year, part of the catch -up is already behind us. But everything suggests that the stock market dynamic will continue for a while. Valued on average 8 to 9 times their estimated benefits for 2025, European banks still suffer a discount of 30 to 40 % compared to the market, all activities combined. They are positioned as beautiful long -term yield values, which is a significant plus in a wallet. Finally, this sector could experience a phase of consolidation, with the emergence of new capital links, like the recent authorization granted by the ECB for which ACREDIT can hold up to 29.9 % of the capital of Commerzbank.