Here is a new episode in the long history of skirmishes between Paris and Berlin: the proposed free trade treaty between the European Union and Mercosur, which brings together several South American countries. Marathon discussions which began in the early 2000s and which Ursula von der Leyen would like to see concluded by the end of the year. Rarely these days in France, the treaty is unanimously against him. All agricultural unions, from the FNSEA to the Peasant Confederation, but also Matignon and the Elysée are opposed to the ratification of the text as it is written. Problem: on the other side of the Rhine, Germany is pushing for rapid adoption.
This new battle is a bit of a rematch of another clash that has played out in recent months, that relating to the increase in customs duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles. Paris was for, Berlin against. France, which had succeeded in uniting a coalition of European countries around it, including Giorgia Meloni’s Italy, had won its case. This time, with Mercosur, the forces are leaning more towards Germany. For the treaty to be rejected, a qualified majority is required in the European Council – the circle which brings together the heads of state and government of the 27 member countries of the EU -, i.e. 15 countries which represent at least 65% of the population European. However, in the German camp are Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and a good part of the countries of northern Europe.
Two visions
Behind this new Franco-German battle, two models, two visions of the world oppose each other. Germany, in recession for two years now, and whose main driver is exports, sees in Mercosur a tremendous opportunity to sell its sedans and other machine tools. Likewise, it fears retaliation from China, its first client. France, whose agricultural weight is twice as high as across the Rhine and which has seen many of its factories leave, is seeking to protect what little industry it has left.
Problematic differences, particularly in the event of Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidential election. The Republican candidate has made the trade war the main axis of his economic project. If he wins the White House and carries out his threats, Europe will have to show a united front. A challenge.