the transfer of troops speaks to the failure of the Russian operation

Former Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff, Major General (EVP) Pekka Toveri estimates that the withdrawal of troops is a shift in tactical focus to the east.

– Especially in the east and north-east of Kiev, there have been signs that the Russians are withdrawing and the Ukrainians are advancing rapidly. There are signs that they are not withdrawing from the fight but are withdrawing voluntarily, Toveri says.

According to Tover, the withdrawal of troops is probably related to the statement of the Russian General Staff on Friday, which stated that the Russian army has largely achieved the objectives of the first phase of the “special operation” in Ukraine.

Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoi said that the combat capability of the Ukrainian armed forces had been weakened, allowing it to focus on the main objective of the operation, which is the liberation of the Donbas region.

– According to the statement, this was part of their plan to try to bind and deceive Ukrainians in the north.

– This is now a clear lie, it can be seen by anyone who has studied operations. Not half of the troops do a deceptive operation and fight so hard that most of them are incapacitated, Toveri points out.

The comrade also points out that the Russians will have to break away and circumnavigate the outer lines when the Ukrainians are in the middle and have shorter distances from the north towards Donbass. The Russians have to circumnavigate the area in a semicircle.

After that, the troops will still have to be serviced in Russia.

– It will be a long time before they are in the Donbass.

According to the comrade, the issue is simply that the Russian operation has failed.

– They have not achieved their goals in the north at all. They will not be able to control their territories when there are so many Ukrainians in the background disrupting their service connections.

According to his comrade, the only way has been to withdraw troops from Ukraine to the Russian side and service them. Theoretically, Russia says there are a couple of million reservists in Russia, but “they don’t seem to be able to set up new troops quickly.”

– It is good that even these current troops will first be supplemented in some way by individual reservists and soldiers to be somehow combat-ready. The only way is to detach the troops from the north, take care of them and move them further south.

It seems that Russia is trying to take over the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russia has stated that it recognizes their independence.

– Then it can be argued that now they have been released and achieved some goals, Toveri thinks.

Russia does not seem to be able to occupy the whole of Ukraine. Instead, it should be able to hold the eastern regions of Ukraine. According to the comrade, by concentrating forces, the possession of the territories could be successful.

– They have more firepower: more heavy artillery and air power. They would probably be able to take over and keep the Donbass region. But taking over the whole country, it has already been seen that it is no longer possible in any way.

However, there are still some Russian troops left near Kiev. According to a comrade in the north-west of Kiev, the Russians are in a slightly better position to keep their troops in the vicinity of the capital, even though the Ukrainians have carried out counter-attacks there as well.

However, the bombing of Kiev can still continue from the north-west and thus maintain the threat.

– But on the east side, if they lose service connections in southeastern Ukraine, they will not be able to keep troops in the vicinity of Kiev or else they will be left behind.

However, the comrade emphasizes that the movement has only just begun, so it remains to be seen in which direction everything is moving.

– Mariupol has a significant symbolic value for them (the Russians) and it is also important for traffic. It will be shot in ruins, but will still be taken over, the Comrade predicts.

Instead, Odessa would seem to be saving, at least for now.

– They don’t seem to have terrible power there. They are, in fact, being pushed back in the direction of Mykolaiv towards Kherson. They apparently do not have the strength to do both, meaning they are likely to now focus on Donbass and Mariupol at this stage.

The comrade also points out that the Russians have a naval blockade in the Black Sea, which means that even if Odessa is not taken over, the Ukrainians will not be able to use it for sea transport.

The comrade sums up the transfer of Russian troops for one clear reason:

– Tried to bite too big a piece, and now we have to adjust the plan.

You can discuss the topic on March 29th. until 11 p.m.