Retail sales increased by five percent during the second quarter, compared to the same month last year. But now the fun is over, this autumn sales are expected to decline, according to a new economic report from the Trade Research Institute (HUI).
Rising prices, higher housing costs and more expensive electricity have not yet had a real impact on consumption. But HUI expects that households will have less money to move around with this autumn and winter, and will have to prioritize their consumption harder. Among other things, capital-intensive industries such as the construction, iron and paint trade and the home electronics trade are expected to have a tougher time going forward.
However, the forecast looks brighter for trade with a wide range, for example pharmacies and clothing trade.
For the forecast in constant prices, i.e. calculated in volume, the HUI now expects a negative outcome for 2022 and 2023. For the full year, trade is predicted to drop 2.5 percent compared to the previous year. The previous forecast had growth of half a percent. The worst prospects are the non-durable goods trade, such as the construction goods and electronics trade
The clouds of worry going forward are, among other things, continued war in Ukraine, increased concern about Europe’s electricity supply this winter and how the housing market is developing.