Emmanuel Macron could take advantage of a calmer year 2025 without elections to survey the French with several referendums. Three themes are of particular interest to the president.
In 2025, “I will ask you” to “decide” on certain “determining issues” had launched Emmanuel Macron din his New Year’s greetings. “If I decided to dissolve, it was to give you back your voice, to find clarity and avoid the immobility that threatened but lucidity and humility require us to recognize that At this time, this decision has produced more instability than serenity and I take full responsibility for it,” he added. So, if the precise term “referendum” had not been pronounced by the Head of State, the way now seems open and his desire to give a voice to the people, well assumed.
As a reminder, if a referendum is envisaged, it must respect article 11 of the Constitution which strictly regulates the subjects on which the opinion of the French can be requested: “any bill relating to the organization of public authorities, on reforms relating to the economic or social policy of the nation and public services” or aimed “at authorizing the ratification of a treaty which would have an impact on the functioning of institutions”. Constitutional provisions which currently prevent referendums from being held on subjects such as immigration as requested by right-wing and far-right political forces.
A move to calm the opposition?
Within the President of the Republic’s inner circle, the hypothesis of a referendum – or a citizen consultation – is gaining ground. “The French have the impression that they vote every five years… In the middle we need valves”, judges a close friend of Emmanuel Macron to BFMTV. “We must give them opportunities to speak. The dissolution was one, others are needed,” specifies this same source.
“From the moment it is decided by the people, it will be difficult for the oppositions to circumvent the decision,” assures the entourage of an important minister to BFMTV. Indeed, the voice of citizens could allow Emmanuel Macron to legitimize one or more future decisions, in a period where the latter is at its lowest in opinion polls. “There are plenty of subjects on which Parliament cannot reach a clear majority and where popular expression can be relevant,” echoes the president’s entourage, always listening to BFMTV.
Conversely, a failed referendum would make Emmanuel Macron’s position even more fragile vis-à-vis the French.This scenario – a disaster for him – could also reinforce the hypothesis of a resignation with the precedent of 1969 when General De Gaulle resigned after a “no” referendum.
Social, economic and public authorities
According to one of his relatives, Emmanuel Macron “already has ideas of wherewhere he wants to go”, as revealed by BFMTV. With a year 2025 without an election, the way seems clear for the Head of State. “The issues have not been decided”, but three themes still seem to stand out: social, economic and “the organization of public authorities”, specifies the continuous news channel.
Regarding the overhaul of institutions, it is interesting to go back to the Yellow Vest crisis. The latter demanded citizen assemblies, the organization of a citizen initiative referendum (RIC) as well as the abolition of the Senate. The reduction in the number of parliamentarians, the limitation of the accumulation of mandates and the acceleration of the legislative procedure were also in the discussions, but these declarations will remain in vain.
Is a referendum on immigration possible?
A fourth theme is particularly on the lips of the right and the extreme right, that of immigration. An idea defended by the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau, but which clashes with the Constitution. Indeed, a referendum cannot be organized on immigration, unless… Unless Emmanuel Macron draws up article 89, the only other text to provide for a referendum. It makes it possible to revise the Constitution – to review the scope of referendums or more directly to amend the fundamental text – by voting on a draft or a proposal for revision in identical terms to the National Assembly and the Senate then submitting this text in the referendum. In this case, the French may be required to express themselves on broader subjects. But we still need to succeed in having a text adopted in Parliament, the Assembly of which is still divided into three distinct blocks.