A positive response would tip the 2024 US presidential campaign into an unknown scenario. 12 jurors have the legal fate of Donald Trump in their hands. They will continue, this Thursday, May 30, in Manhattan court their quest for a verdict in the first criminal trial in the history of a former president of the United States, who aspires to become one again.
These seven men and five women, citizens of New York immersed for six weeks in this affair with extraordinary stakes, began to deliberate on Wednesday.
They worked for about three hours behind closed doors, in a court room, with their notes and a laptop containing the case’s evidence. L’Express takes stock of the possible scenarios.
What questions should jurors answer?
During the debates, pornographic film actress Stormy Daniels crudely detailed her meeting and the sexual relationship she claims to have had with Donald Trump in 2006, and which the latter denies. The former personal lawyer of real estate mogul Michael Cohen assured that Donald Trump had instructed him to pay $130,000 to the actress in exchange for her silence on this episode, at the very end of the 2016 presidential campaign . A version also denied by the defense.
But the jury will decide neither on the reality of this connection nor on the legality of the payment. The question it is up to him to decide is whether Donald Trump was guilty of 34 falsifications of accounting documents to conceal the reimbursement of this sum to Michael Cohen, throughout 2017.
A litigant is found guilty of aggravated falsification of company accounts when “he made or caused false statements in the records of a commercial company with the intent to defraud, and to aid or conceal another offense”, underlined Judge Merchan in his final explanations to the jurors. This additional offense would be a violation of New York State election law which prohibits promoting or harming a candidacy by unlawful means.
For the prosecution, the 34 offenses are materialized by false invoices, checks (some of which signed by Donald Trump) and false entries in the accounting books of the Trump Organization group. She further considers the $130,000 to be an illegal campaign expense.
What are the possible verdicts?
Guilty or not guilty, the jurors will have to decide unanimously on each of the 34 counts. To convict a criminal defendant, U.S. law requires jurors to be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt. The defense therefore only needs a juror refusing to convict Donald Trump to obtain a reprieve, or even a victory.
But the 12 jurors could also come to a conclusion of disagreement. The trial would be canceled and Donald Trump could claim victory. But it could be temporary because another trial could be organized, unless the prosecution drops the charges. It remains to be seen whether a new trial could be held before the presidential election.
What penalty does Donald Trump face?
If he is found guilty, it will not be up to the jurors, but to the judge, to set the sentence a few weeks later. Prison is possible in theory, with falsification of accounting documents being punishable by a maximum of four years in New York State. But in the absence of a criminal record for the almost 78-year-old defendant, he could impose an alternative sentence such as a suspended sentence with probation, or community service, as well as a fine.
In any case, Donald Trump will be able to appeal, with very probably a suspensive effect on his sentence, in particular in the event of prison. A criminal conviction, the first for a former American president, would not invalidate his candidacy in the November 5 election.