Ten years ago, only a small part of society was really concerned about climate change. Today, 151 countries, 263 cities and more than a thousand companies around the world are aiming for carbon neutrality, according to data compiled by the site zerotracker.net. “The vision of a fully decarbonized economy now dominates, including in the countries of the South,” welcome the experts from the NGO NewClimate Institute in a recent report. However, even if the direction followed is the right one, the transition that is taking shape on the ground does not really look like what the ecologists would like. More precisely, three major trends have been confirmed in 2023, creating both hope and risks.
First lesson, nuclear power comes out of the sequence. For the first time, this energy source is cited among the solutions for the fight against global warming in the final agreement of a COP. On December 2, on the sidelines of the great mass dedicated to the climate in Dubai, 21 countries including the United States and France committed to tripling nuclear capacities in the world by 2050. Finally, in Germany, several Political figures demand a restart of the reactors. Including within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), dear to former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Of course, it is not enough to demand such a revival of nuclear power for it to materialize. We will have to organize this increase in power in a sector with atrophied capacities, which involves recruitment, firm orders for equipment or even improved waste management… By the admission of experts in the sector, the challenge will be difficult to pick up. But ultimately, countries that invest in atoms will benefit from dense energy – which uses little surface area and resources compared to the number of terawatts produced -, very low carbon and controllable. Three advantages which make nuclear power an essential pillar of the transition, even if the idea still goes down badly with the Greens.
Pragmatism or solutionism?
Second lesson: the idea of fighting climate change using technology is gaining ground. CO2 capture and its burial are today among the levers considered essential, whereas, just a few years ago, they were considered unreasonable solutions. On the occasion of COP28, the importance of this new sector was once again highlighted. But this is only the tip of the iceberg. In the future, the world will have more monitoring satellites that anticipate extreme weather events. Giant vertical farms, intended to produce food in arid environments, will multiply. Cloud seeding could gain new followers, ahead of possible trials on solar radiation management, a process consisting of spreading particles in the atmosphere with the aim of returning part of the heat received by the Earth towards the space. Pragmatism or solutionism? If we consider that technology can act effectively against climate change, there is a great risk of relying solely on it and not making enough efforts to reduce our CO2 emissions. On this point, the ecologists are right: it is above all future generations who could suffer the consequences.
Last lesson, and it is undoubtedly the most worrying from a scientific point of view, fossil fuels are resisting. It was to be expected. Oil-producing countries are not ready to abandon their precious resources which serve as the basis of many economies. Thus, COP28 did not really mark the exit from black gold. Will the next international climate summit, which will take place in Baku (Azerbaijan), do better? Not sure. 90% of Azerbaijan’s economy depends on oil and gas, recall elected officials in a recent column, already evoking a “COP of shame and dishonor, for France, the European Union and the democracies”. Across the Channel, daily life The Guardian also worries: “Russia has worked behind the scenes to sabotage progress, and it will do so even more next year when the COP is held in Baku, Azerbaijan.”
At the same time, the world is consuming more and more coal. In 2023, more than 8,500 million tonnes will go up in smoke, due in particular to the enormous needs of India and China. We will have to tackle this bulimia if we want to save the planet. Anticipating a possible failure of the Paris agreement, Pascal Lamy, president of the Commission on Climate Overshoot, proposes a two-speed system for exiting fossil fuels, with the North acting before the South. But his idea is struggling to take shape in a fractured world where nations defend their interests above all. This inaction will undoubtedly fuel civil disobedience in 2024.
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