Dengue, chikungunya, Zika: Metropolitan France is exposed to “a fairly high risk” of epidemics linked to the tiger mosquito in the next five years, estimates Anses this Friday, September 13, warning of the risks of saturation of the fight or tension in the health system.
“An arbovirosis epidemic, all viruses combined, has a probability of between 6 and 7, on a scale of 0 to 9, of occurring in the next five years” in mainland France, estimate the experts of the National Agency for Food Safety (Anses), informed by the consultation of actors in the field and a review of the scientific literature.
The tiger mosquito is now present in 78 metropolitan departments. In recent years, cases of dengue and chikungunya have increased in France, with around fifty indigenous cases of dengue in 2023, infected on site, after a record of 66 in 2022. Until now, indigenous cases have been localized outbreaks, where it has always been possible to trace the origin of the contaminations. “We talk about an epidemic from the moment when it is not possible to link all infected people to an outbreak. This means that transmissions escape the control system,” said Émeline Barrès, one of the two coordinators of the expertise, quoted in a press release.
The presence of the tiger mosquito, climatic conditions favourable to its reproduction, the arrival of infected people from areas of viral circulation, the effectiveness of mosquito control and viral transmission all play a role in the outbreak of an epidemic. “In the event of an epidemic, the means of prevention and control of arboviruses could quickly become saturated”, warns Anses, recommending adapting material, financial and human resources.
A health system under strain
And “the health system would be under strain in the event of a major epidemic”, with many cases over a large territory, or if one epidemic coincided with another, as in the Antilles in 2020, where a dengue epidemic occurred at the same time as that of Covid-19, warn its experts.
“The risk may also exist if the healthcare offer, particularly general practitioners and emergency services, is already saturated, as may be the case during the mosquito’s activity period,” they add. To better anticipate, ANSES recommends making better use of overseas experiences and training caregivers in the risk factors and warning signs of serious forms of arbovirosis.
An epidemic, even a small one, could also affect the economy, mainly tourism, with a decrease in the number of people visiting the affected areas. As epidemics are known to aggravate social inequalities, ANSES also calls for vigilance regarding access to information, prevention and care for the most disadvantaged.