During February, Russia will send reservists recruited in the fall to the front. In addition, the pressure for a new attack at home is strong. ISW estimated that Russia’s next large-scale offensive would begin in February-March.
Several sources from Western countries, Ukraine and Russia hint that Russia is preparing a large-scale attack on Eastern Ukraine, the Donbas region.
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War tells about it (ISW) (you switch to another service).
Representative of the Ukrainian Land Forces Ivan Tymochko said in an interview with Ukrainian media that Russia is strengthening its grouping in the Donbas region, which anticipates an attack.
Kremlin sources also say that Russia could launch a large-scale attack in February-March, reports the news agency Bloomberg (you will switch to another service).
Russia is believed to be seeking initiative in the war with the new attack. Russia may also start an attack due to pressure from the home front.
NATO: No signs of attack
Secretary General of the Military Alliance NATO Jens Stoltenberg estimated on Monday during a visit to Seoul that Russia had succeeded in mobilizing at least 200,000 men and that more would be coming.
Stoltenberg estimates that Russia has recently invested in domestic weapons production and concluded arms deals with North Korea and Iran.
Stoltenberg believes that the Russian president Vladimir Putin is not giving up on its ambitions in Ukraine despite recent defeats.
According to Stoltenberg, NATO sees no obvious signs that Russia is about to launch a large-scale attack in eastern Ukraine in the near future.
ISW: The big attack could start in February or March
The Kremlin has said that the reservists called up in the fall are expected to arrive at the front in February at the earliest.
ISW has already estimated that Russia could launch a large-scale attack in February or March. According to Russian war bloggers, there are signs in the Russian information environment that an attack is already expected.
Telegram (you switch to another service) according to war bloggers, indications that Russia would be ready to make a decisive attack.
ISW has previously estimated that the attack could target the Luhansk region in the eastern part of Ukraine. Another possible option could be in Vuhledar in western Donetsk.
You can read the latest news about the situation in Ukraine in this updated article.